2013 Stephen Foster Handicap
A compact, but quality field of 6 horses comprises the 2013 Stephen Foster Handicap. Reigning Breeders' Cup Classic Winner Fort Larned is joined by Golden Ticket, Ron The Greek, Take Charge Indy, Pool Play, and Successful Dan. Every horse in the race is a graded stakes winner and every horse except Successful Dan has won at least one Grade 1 race.
The Stephen Foster is a "Win and You're In" race for the Breeders' Cup Challenge. The winner will be guaranteed a spot in the starting gate for the Breeders' Cup Classic in November.
The Stephen Foster Handicap is scheduled as Race 8 on Churchill Downs' card for Saturday, June 15. Entries can be found here via Daily Racing Form and free past performances can be found here via Brisnet.
#1 Golden Ticket (12-1) - The 2012 Travers Stakes winner has run four times in 2013. He has 2 wins, but both of those wins came in Allowance races. His other two races were a 3rd place finish in the Grade 3 Mineshaft at Fair Grounds and a 4th place finish in the Grade 3 Skip Away. I think Golden Ticket is a cut below the top horses in this race, but he does have a few factors in his favor. First, there appears to a lot of speed in this race and he can layoff the pace. Even if the speed does not materialize, he can lay close enough to have a chance. Secondly, Golden Ticket has shown he likes the Churchill Downs dirt track. In 4 lifetime starts, he has 1 win and 2 seconds. I rate Golden Ticket a cut below the best, but he can certainly finish in the money.
#2 Fort Larned (3-1) - Last year's Breeders' Cup Classic Winner has yet to come close to reproducing the form that won him that race. In his first start of the year in the Gulfstream Park Handicap, he stumbled out of the gate and lost his jockey. In his 2nd race of the year, he stalked the pace in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap, but he had nothing in the stretch. I am going to lean against him based on his performance in the Oaklawn Handicap. He had a hot pace in front of him and just hit a wall in the stretch. He does have a nice stretch of workouts since May 19, but the probable price he will be is not worth the wager.
#3 Ron The Greek (3-1) - The 2012 winner of the Santa Anita Handicap and Stephen Foster comes into this race off a 3rd place finish in the Charles Town Classic. Ron The Greek gets away from his nemesis Game On Dude and if he gets a hot pace ahead of him, he rates a serious threat. He is working well and is trained by Bill Mott. Expect him to in 5th or 6th early and make a run in the stretch. He is a must use on top.
#4 Take Charge Indy (5-2) - The son of A.P. Indy is coming off a dominating performance in the Grade 2 Alysheba on the Kentucky Oaks undercard in which he won by 6 lengths. Since his 19th place finish in the Kentucky Derby in 2012, he has 5 starts and hit the board in all starts. Despite the amount of speed in the race, he does best when he is on or near the lead. His last workout on June 8 was stellar and he is my top pick to win.
#5 Pool Play (15-1) - Pool Play won this race in 2011 with a great stretch run at 36-1. Since that time he has not been nearly as successful. He has 8 races with only 1 win (2012 Hawthorne Gold Cup). He last two races have both resulted in 6th place finishes. This guy will settle at the back of the field and try to make one run in the stretch. Given his recent races, I think Pool Play will have a tough chance to win. At best he may he the board.
#6 Successful Dan (2-1) - The 2-1 morning line favorite is a half brother to reigning Horse of the Year, Wise Dan. His last race was the Grade 3 Ben Ali at Keeneland at a distance of 1 1/8 Miles on the All-Weather Track. In that race he set a slow pace and used that to his advantage as he won gate to wire. The Ben Ali was his first start in 10 months and his workouts since then have been excellent. I think he will sit behind Take Charge Indy and Fort Larned, but if the race is slow enough he will press the pace. He is a must use in the win spot.
Good luck to those that wager on the Stephen Foster Handicap.
The Stephen Foster is a "Win and You're In" race for the Breeders' Cup Challenge. The winner will be guaranteed a spot in the starting gate for the Breeders' Cup Classic in November.
The Stephen Foster Handicap is scheduled as Race 8 on Churchill Downs' card for Saturday, June 15. Entries can be found here via Daily Racing Form and free past performances can be found here via Brisnet.
#1 Golden Ticket (12-1) - The 2012 Travers Stakes winner has run four times in 2013. He has 2 wins, but both of those wins came in Allowance races. His other two races were a 3rd place finish in the Grade 3 Mineshaft at Fair Grounds and a 4th place finish in the Grade 3 Skip Away. I think Golden Ticket is a cut below the top horses in this race, but he does have a few factors in his favor. First, there appears to a lot of speed in this race and he can layoff the pace. Even if the speed does not materialize, he can lay close enough to have a chance. Secondly, Golden Ticket has shown he likes the Churchill Downs dirt track. In 4 lifetime starts, he has 1 win and 2 seconds. I rate Golden Ticket a cut below the best, but he can certainly finish in the money.
#2 Fort Larned (3-1) - Last year's Breeders' Cup Classic Winner has yet to come close to reproducing the form that won him that race. In his first start of the year in the Gulfstream Park Handicap, he stumbled out of the gate and lost his jockey. In his 2nd race of the year, he stalked the pace in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap, but he had nothing in the stretch. I am going to lean against him based on his performance in the Oaklawn Handicap. He had a hot pace in front of him and just hit a wall in the stretch. He does have a nice stretch of workouts since May 19, but the probable price he will be is not worth the wager.
#3 Ron The Greek (3-1) - The 2012 winner of the Santa Anita Handicap and Stephen Foster comes into this race off a 3rd place finish in the Charles Town Classic. Ron The Greek gets away from his nemesis Game On Dude and if he gets a hot pace ahead of him, he rates a serious threat. He is working well and is trained by Bill Mott. Expect him to in 5th or 6th early and make a run in the stretch. He is a must use on top.
#4 Take Charge Indy (5-2) - The son of A.P. Indy is coming off a dominating performance in the Grade 2 Alysheba on the Kentucky Oaks undercard in which he won by 6 lengths. Since his 19th place finish in the Kentucky Derby in 2012, he has 5 starts and hit the board in all starts. Despite the amount of speed in the race, he does best when he is on or near the lead. His last workout on June 8 was stellar and he is my top pick to win.
#5 Pool Play (15-1) - Pool Play won this race in 2011 with a great stretch run at 36-1. Since that time he has not been nearly as successful. He has 8 races with only 1 win (2012 Hawthorne Gold Cup). He last two races have both resulted in 6th place finishes. This guy will settle at the back of the field and try to make one run in the stretch. Given his recent races, I think Pool Play will have a tough chance to win. At best he may he the board.
#6 Successful Dan (2-1) - The 2-1 morning line favorite is a half brother to reigning Horse of the Year, Wise Dan. His last race was the Grade 3 Ben Ali at Keeneland at a distance of 1 1/8 Miles on the All-Weather Track. In that race he set a slow pace and used that to his advantage as he won gate to wire. The Ben Ali was his first start in 10 months and his workouts since then have been excellent. I think he will sit behind Take Charge Indy and Fort Larned, but if the race is slow enough he will press the pace. He is a must use in the win spot.
Good luck to those that wager on the Stephen Foster Handicap.
