3 Questions regarding the 2013 NFL Divisional Round

3 Questions regarding the 2013 NFL Divisional Round

With the Wild Card round finished, let's look ahead to the Divisional round of the NFL Playoffs. Here are 3 questions I have:

1. Will the Ravens, Texans, and Packers get revenge?

3 of the 4 Divisional round games are rematches. The Baltimore-Denver game is a rematch of Week 15 and the Houston-New England game is a rematch of Week 14. The Green Bay-San Francisco game is a rematch of Week 1 and seems like a lifetime ago.

From this chair, I have a hard time seeing Baltimore reverse the outcome of their previous match-up with Denver. The Broncos are the hottest team in the NFL right now with 11 straight wins and one Peyton Manning. The defense is playing incredibly well and Denver is 7-1 at home. As of this writing, Denver is favored by 9.5 points.

I feel the same way about Houston's chances versus New England as I do Baltimore's chances against Denver. Not only does the Week 14 beat down by New England still linger, but Houston did not look impressive in their Wild Card home win against Cincinnati. I like how New England's defense ended the regular season with a 28-0 win at home against Miami. Sure, it was against the Dolphins, but this was New England's first shutout since a 59-0 blowout on October 18, 2009 against Tennessee. Not to mention, New England's defense has been much maligned in the last several years. New England is currently favored by 9 points.

The third and final rematch of the Divisional round is Green Bay at San Francisco. San Francisco went into Lambeau and won 30-22 in Week 1. Both teams had their ups and downs over the course of the season. Offensively we will see a contrast as the 49ers will run the ball and the Packers will throw the ball around the field. Charles Woodson returned for Green Bay in the Wild Card round, but that was against Christian Ponder-less Minnesota. On paper this game looks close and I can only hope it matches some of the classic games we've seen these 2 teams play in the past. If I was forced to pick the winner of this game, I would pick San Francisco. San Francisco is favored by 3 points.

2. Will Matt Ryan and Atlanta finally win a playoff game?

This is one you may hear all week. Matt Ryan is 0-3 in the playoffs as the starting QB for the Atlanta Falcons. On top of the 0-3 playoff record, Atlanta has been taken lightly the entire season. Atlanta fans will not like hearing this critique, but the detractors are correct. That said, Atlanta fans are also correct in their defense of Ryan and Atlanta.

In 3 playoff starts, Matt Ryan hasn't played great. His stats are 70 of 110 (63.6% completions) for 584 yards, 3 TD's, and 4 INT's. In 2008, the Falcons lost 30-24 on the road against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals ended up losing in Super Bowl 43 to the Steelers. In 2010 as the NFC #1 Seed, Atlanta was blown out at home 48-21 to the Green Bay Packers. The Packers went on to win Super Bowl 45. In 2011, Atlanta went on the road and lost 24-2 to the New York Giants. The Giants went on to win Super Bowl 46.

It's clear that when Atlanta loses, they lose to teams that end up in the Super Bowl or win the Super Bowl. 2 of the 3 games were on the road, which is a nice segue into my next point. Matt Ryan has a home record of 35-5 in the NFL regular season. If you include the 2010 Playoff loss to the Packers, Ryan's home record is 35-6. It's hard to argue with 35-6 at home especially with the Falcon's record this year.

Given the small sample of Ryan's playoff career, there is not sufficient evidence to say Ryan and Atlanta cannot win in the playoffs. In those 3 games though, Ryan hasn't exactly set the world on fire. Remember, it took Peyton Manning until his 4th post-season game to get his first win.

3. How will the Bye week affect Atlanta, San Francisco, Denver, and New England?

Let's start with the easiest team: New England Patriots. Under Bill Belichick, New England is 5-1 in the Divisional round after a bye. Their only loss was in 2010 to the New York Jets. For the Patriots, having the bye will undoubtedly help.

As for the other 3 teams, it is very difficult to decipher whether or not the bye will help. Mike Smith (Atlanta) and John Fox (Denver) are 0-1 as Head Coaches after a bye in the playoffs. Jim Harbaugh (San Francisco) is 1-0. Peyton Manning is 1-3 off a bye week as a starting QB, with all 4 of those starts belonging to his time in Indianapolis.

I don't foresee the bye week hurting any team, but it is always difficult to say so with any level of certainty. Each player and team reacts differently to a bye week. Another factor to consider is the opponent of team that had the bye. Sometimes you just lose to a hot team and the bye week is not a factor (or excuse).

Road to the 2013 Kentucky Derby: Understanding the Points Systems

Understanding the New Kentucky Derby Points System

2013 marks a new era for the Kentucky Derby with the advent of a Points System to determine the starters in the Run for the Roses. Before we can delve into the new system, we need to look at the old system and some of the pitfalls.

The Graded Earnings Rule

Prior to 2013, Churchill Downs used Graded Earnings as a way to determine which horses would start in the Kentucky Derby. Any earnings a horse had in a Grade 1, Grade 2, or Grade 3 prior to the Kentucky Derby would count towards their total. The top 20 graded earning horses would start in the Kentucky Derby. One of the divisive points was that a horse's graded earnings from their 2 year old season counted the same as the earnings from their 3 year old season. 

Let's use this example:

Horse A runs in the 2011 Grade 1 Breeders Cup Juvenile and wins the race. 60% of the purse is awarded to the 1st place finisher. The purse of the Breeders Cup Juvenile is $2,000,000. Therefore, Horse A has $1,200,000 in graded earnings. These earnings are more than sufficient for Horse A to run in the 2012 Kentucky Derby.

Simply using the example above, some issues immediately come up. First, Horse A will not need to run well in another race until the Derby. Given that the Breeders Cup is run approximately 6 months before the Kentucky Derby, Horse A is set for the Kentucky Derby barring injury. Secondly, Horse A gets a free pass to the Derby based on one race at the age of 2. The horse could have peaked at age 2 and shown no maturation but would still run in the Derby because of a race 6 months before.

Certainly these are hypotheticals, but they happen. One other scenario that unfolded is a horse who ran in strictly sprint races (races less than 1 mile) had enough graded earnings to make it into the Derby. That horse, Trinniberg, finished 17th in the 2012 Kentucky Derby.

Let's take a look at the new system and how some of the concerns were addressed.

The Points System

The Points System is exactly as it sounds. The top 4 finishers in the designated races are awarded points. The amount of points awarded vary depending on the weighting of each specific race. There are 36 races that will have points awarded.

The races are broken down into 4 different categories:

- The first category is comprised of 19 races on a point scale of 10-4-2-1. These races take place from September 29, 2012 to February 18, 2013.

- The 2nd category is comprised of 8 races on a point scale of 50-20-10-5. These races are considered the "First Leg of the Kentucky Derby Championship Series" and take place from February 23, 2013 to March 24, 2013.

- The 3rd category is comprised of 7 races on a point scale of 100-40-20-10. These races are considered the "Second Leg of the Kentucky Derby Championship Series" and take place from March 30, 2013 to April 13, 2013.

- The 4th category is comprised of 2 races on a point scale of 20-8-4-2. These 2 races are called "Wild Cards" and take place from April 20, 2013 to April 27, 2013.

Here is a link to the races that comprise the Road to the Kentucky Derby via Daily Racing Form.

Road to the Derby Schedule

The point system essentially de-emphasizes 2 year old races. For the 2013 Road to the Derby, only 10 races will have points awarded for races in 2012. The Breeders Cup Juvenile is on a point scale of 10-4-2-1. Also, 2 races awarding points will be run overseas. That brings me to my next point.

Points System Critiques and Improvements

As with anything that is in it's infancy, there is room for improvement. The first is that 2 foreign run races will be awarding points and the latter race (UAE Derby) is on the points scale of 100-40-20-10. Other than 1971 Kentucky Derby winner Canonero II, horses coming from outside North America have not fared well in the Kentucky Derby, much less contended to win. To think that a foreign run horse could occupy a spot in the starting gate is mind boggling to me. Churchill Downs would be best served awarding less points to the UAE Derby races or designating it as a "Wild Card" race. There is not enough empirical evidence to support awarding 100 points to the winner of the UAE Derby.

Secondly, Churchill Downs needs to leave politics out. Noticeably absent from the list of designated races is the Grade 3 Illinois Derby. Churchill Downs owns Arlington Park in Illinois and the exclusion of the Illinois Derby is a clear political move. This stems from awarding of dates to Hawthorne Racecourse in Stickney, Illinois.

What to expect in 2013

Given this is the first year of the Kentucky Derby Points System, it is hard to know what will happen in terms of which horses will qualify. According to Churchill Downs officials, horses who earn at least 40 points are likely to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Horses with point totals of as low as 20 and as high as 150 could make it into the Kentucky Derby according to officials.

The Kentucky Derby ushers in a new era for 2013. The new Points System should simplify the understanding of how horses qualify for the Kentucky Derby.

Road to the 2013 Kentucky Derby: Grade 3 Sham Stakes and Grade 2 Jerome Stakes Review

2013 Sham Stakes Review

The 2013 Road to the Kentucky Derby kicked off with the Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park. Off at odds of 2/5 Goldencents did what a heavy favorite is supposed to do: Win. At a payoff of $2.80, Goldencents won by 1 1/2 lengths over Den's Legacy with Manando finishing 3rd. Rounding out the field of 5 was Dry Summer and Dirty Swagg. Greeley Awesome scratched prior to the race.

Stalking the pace set by Manando, Goldencents sat in 2nd until the stretch where he went by Manando under urging of jockey Kevin Krigger. Goldencents covered the 1 Mile trip in 1:36.50. Den's Legacy sat 3rd on the rail throughout and got up in the final yards to finish 2nd ahead of Manando. The 2013 Sham Stakes can been seen below via Bloodhorse.

2013 Sham Stakes

Notes:

- Goldencents received a 93 Beyer Speed Figure for his Sham Stakes win. 2012 Sham Stakes winner Out of Bounds received a 99 Beyer.

- Goldencents had $184,410 bet on him of the $221,760 in the Show pool, accounting for 83% of the pool.

2013 Jerome Stakes Review

Shortly after the Sham Stakes was completed, the Grade 2 Jerome Stakes went off at Aqueduct. Once again, the favorite prevailed but this time only by a head. At even money Vyjack rallied for the victory in deep stretch to pay $4.30. Longshot Siete de Oros missed out on a huge upset at odds of 41-1. Finishing the trifecta was another longshot Amerigo Vespucci at odds of 39-1.

The undefeated Vyjack sat 2nd on the rail behind Mudflats after 1/4 mile. Jockey Cornelio Velazquez decided to take matters into his own hands and went to the lead. Coming to the top of the stretch, Vyjack swung wide leaving the rail open for the aforementioned Siete de Oros. Halfway down the stretch, Siete de Oros looked like he was going to pull away for the win, but Vyjack rallied and wore down Siete de Oros for the victory.

Vyjack covered the 1 Mile and 70 yards distance in 1:40.67. Rounding out the field of 8 in order was Long River, Vegas No Show, Notacatbutallama, Mudflats, and James Jingle. The Jerome Stakes is linked below via Bloodhorse.

2013 Jerome Stakes

Notes:

- The 2012 Jerome Stakes was held on April 21, two weeks before the Kentucky Derby. That race was a 1 turn mile held on Aqueduct's Main Track. The 2013 edition was a 2 turn, 1 Mile and 70 yards race on the Inner Dirt.

- Vyjack was making his first start around 2 turns. He earned a Beyer of 90 for his victory. Last year's winner of the Jerome was The Lumber Guy, who earned a 96 Beyer.

What does this mean in regards to the Kentucky Derby?

To be honest, these 2 events do not mean much. With 17 weeks (yes 17 weeks) until the Kentucky Derby a lot can and will change. Vyjack has room for improvement as the Jerome Stakes was his first start around 2 turns. The best thing to take away from Vyjack is that he showed a lot of heart in the stretch of the Jerome Stakes. He appeared to be beaten twice and still won. As for Goldencents, he did what he was expected to and that was to win the Sham Stakes.

I expect both of these horses to take some money when in the 1st wagering pool of the 2013 Kentucky Derby Future Wager that is to be held from February 8 to 10. Horses that win the Prep Races take a lot of money and whether that is right or wrong is up to you. That's why we have pari-mutuel wagering.

2012 NFL Betting Odds

2012 NFL Betting Odds

Here is a basic spreadsheet of the 2012 NFL Regular Season Betting Odds. The link above will allow you to download the Excel file. I will update the spreadsheet after each round of the NFL Playoffs.

Update 6:52 PM: The spreadsheet has been updated to include the Wild Card games.