College Football Week 2 Musings

Week 2

• Well, the FCS division won three more games over FBS opponents. Two of the victories, Chattanooga 42-14 over Georgia State and Maine 24-14 over Massachusetts, were not unexpected. Both Georgia State and Massachusetts are completing a transition from the FCS level to the FBS level. Both rosters are made up of mostly FCS caliber talent which is why these losses are not surprising. The true upset was Nicholls State beating Western Michigan 27-23 in Kalamazoo, Michigan. In 2011 and 2012, Nicholls State went 2-20 and those two victories were over NAIA opponent Evangel. In addition, Western Michigan was coming off a solid defensive performance against Michigan State in which they were beaten 26-13.

• The game between #6 South Carolina and #11 Georgia showed that Aaron Murray can win the big one. It also showed that Jadeveon Clowney's MIA performance against North Carolina in Week 1 was no fluke. There is no doubt that Clowney is the focus of the South Carolina defense, but if he is not able to make an impact, South Carolina will not have nearly as a successful season as they hoped for. Georgia won the game 41-30.

• Week 2's other big game between #14 Notre Dame and #17 Michigan lived up to the excitement as Michigan defeated Notre Dame 41-30. Michigan's QB Devin Gardner found WR Jeremy Gallon 8 times for 184 yards and 3 TD's. Jeremy Gallon had 4 Touchdown receptions in 2012. In two games in 2013, Gallon has 4 touchdowns. Gardner also showed his escapability as a runner getting out sacks many times throughout the game and added a rushing TD.

• Devin Gardner's overall performance was excellent except for one play early in the 4th quarter which was the Notre Dame interception in the Michigan end zone. Gardner should have taken the sack and the safety instead of his ill-fated attempt to throw the ball away. Let's also give credit to Stephon Tuitt for making that tough catch. After all, he is a defensive lineman.

• Finally, we come to the USC Trojans' 10-7 loss versus Washington State. It was a horrendous display by the USC Trojans' quarterbacks. As I noted in my Week 1 post, I was not impressed by the USC quarterbacks' performance in Week 1. Well, Week 2 against Washington State was worse than Week 1 against Hawaii. Here are the stats: Cody Kessler and Max Wittek combined to go 11 for 21 for 54 yards and 2 interceptions. The three service academies (Army, Navy, and Air Force) all managed to throw for more yards than USC. All three of those teams run the triple option. USC WR Marqise Lee had 7 catches for 27 yards. No team with Marqise Lee as a #1 WR should throw for 54 yards for the entire game. I believe Lane Kiffin is gone at the end of the season because it will be hard to salvage more than 6 or 7 wins with the quarterbacks he has at his disposal. How many people thought Mike Leach would win a game at Washington State while only scoring 10 points? I certainly did not.

College Football Week 1 Musings - Saturday Edition

Saturday, August 31, 2013

• I might as well get the FCS upsets out of the way first. Four FCS teams, Eastern Washington, McNeese State, Eastern Illinois, and Northern Iowa, went on the road and upset FBS teams. Those four upsets were (final score in parentheses): Eastern Washington over #25 Oregon State (49-46); McNeese State over South Florida (53-21); Eastern Illinois over San Diego State (40-19); and Northern Iowa over Iowa State (28-20). The most impressive of the four upsets was Eastern Washington, specifically the play of their QB Vernon Adams and the resiliency of the team. At halftime, Eastern Washington was up 29-17, but Oregon State came storming back and took a 32-29 lead in the 3rd quarter. Both teams fought back and forth until Vernon Adams led a last minute drive that gave Eastern Washington the upset. Vernon Adams made a name for himself by accounting for 518 yards of total offense. He went 23 for 30 for 411 yards and 4 TD's. In addition, he had 107 yards and 2 TD's on 16 rushes. It truly was a deserved win for the Eagles of Eastern Washington.

• The most surprising of those four upsets goes to Eastern Illinois over San Diego State. San Diego State is considered one of the favorites to make it to the Mountain West Championship. It is one thing to lose a close game, but San Diego State was blown out on their own field, 40-19. It will be interesting to see how San Diego State responds to this defeat and how it will impact the rest of their season.

• FCS teams also produced some other scares around the country. West Virginia needed 17 second half points to beat William & Mary 24-17. Boston College also needed 17 second half points to defeat a stubborn Villanova squad 24-14. Southern Illinois almost erased an 18 point halftime deficit against Illinois, but came up empty on 4th and goal from the Illini 3 yard line with 44 seconds left. Illinois won the game 42-34. Howard University held a 24-13 lead with 5 minutes remaining 3rd quarter against Eastern Michigan, but 21 unanswered points allayed any upset fears as Eastern Michigan won 34-24.

• After losing to Iowa by a point, 18-17, in 2012, Northern Illinois exacted revenge with a 30-27 win over Iowa in Iowa City. Northern Illinois had a 10-0 lead late in the 1st quarter and were driving for another potential score until a fumble by TE Luke Eakes was scooped up and returned for a TD to cut the lead to 10-7. At that point, the momentum shifted to Iowa until the 4th quarter when NIU tied the game at 27. With 1:30 left to go, Iowa was on their own 45 yard line. On the ensuing play Iowa QB Jake Rudock behind his WR and the pass was intercepted. The interception eventually led to NIU's game winning FG. I wonder how much goodwill is in the bank for Kirk Ferentz at Iowa if the team continues to decline as it has the past 3 seasons.

• #1, and already 3-time BCS National Champions elect by the media, Alabama, appeared, well, vulnerable in their 35-10 victory over Virginia Tech. The offensive line did not look good and AJ McCarron went 10 for 23 with 110 yards. Yes Virginia Tech and Bud Foster are a tough, blue collared defense, but the performance by the Alabama offense was mediocre for such a talented group. Outside of the 77 yard TD run by Virginia Tech's Trey Edmunds, the defense for Alabama was stifling. Good thing Nick Saban has two weeks to prepare for Texas A&M because the offense will need it to get better.

• One score that jumped off the page was seeing Nebraska eke out a 3 point victory over Wyoming, 37-34. A closer look at the box score still does not make the victory appear any better. Nebraska's vaunted "blackshirt" defense gave up 602 yards. 602 yards. They gave up an average of 7.3 yards per carry. Granted Wyoming does have a very fast up-tempo offense, but Nebraska should not be giving up that kind of yardage. Head coach Bo Pelini gave 7 starters their blackshirts before the game. He may want to take those back after seeing that awful performance.

• #5 Georgia and #8 Clemson lived up to the billing of two top 10 teams. While there was not much defense played early, both defenses eventually settled down in a very entertaining and intense game. Until the 4th quarter, it felt as if either team could win, with Clemson eventually gaining the upper hand and winning 38-35. The message boards were fired up in the aftermath of the loss for Georgia. I saw calls for Mark Richt to be fired and Aaron Murray to benched in the upcoming big games against South Carolina and LSU, but those posts are overreacting to the loss. It was the first game of the season and Georgia was on the road in the hostile environment of Clemson's Death Valley. It is not as if Georgia got ran out of the building, the game was close throughout until a few 4th quarter mistakes. Next week is a chance at redemption as Georgia hosts South Carolina.

• #12 LSU put on a strong performance against #20 TCU, who were not disgraced in defeat. LSU QB Zach Mettenberger had a strong, confident performance as LSU beat TCU 37-27. The best facet of the game for both teams was the Return units. Odell Beckham for LSU and B.J. Catalon for TCU both had some excellent returns that aided their teams respectively. LSU is definitely a contender in the SEC West (and for the SEC Championship) while TCU looks like they will challenge Texas, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma for the Big 12 title.

• I managed to catch the late kickoff between #22 Northwestern and California and I was glad I did. Northwestern really showed grit and determination to win 44-30 on the road. Northwestern lost their starting QB Kain Colter on the very first drive of the game to a concussion. Backup Trevor Siemian filled in nicely in Colter's absence. Northwestern also lost their starting RB Venric Mark to a hamstring injury, but it was not enough for Cal to win. Cal QB Jared Goff put on a tremendous performance as he became the first true freshman to start a season opener at QB for Cal. He had 445 yards passing with 2 TD's, but he also threw 3 interceptions. Two of those interceptions were returned for TD's by Northwestern LB Collin Ellis. In defense of Goff, both of those interceptions were deflected and nabbed by Ellis. Despite the loss Cal appears to have a bright future under head coach Sonny Dykes and QB Jared Goff.

Breaking Down North Dakota State's Win Over Kansas State

How North Dakota State Beat Kansas State

I was fortunate enough to watch this game in its entirety and what a game it was. North Dakota State engineered a game clinching 18 play, 80 yard drive that took 8:30 off the clock and left Kansas State with 28 seconds to come up with a miracle. As impressive as that final drive was, there are other factors that need to be mentioned to decipher how North Dakota State went into Manhattan, Kansas and upset Kansas State.

First and foremost, North Dakota State won the game by sticking to their game plan. They are a possession team that uses short passes and running to control the clock and keep the opposing defense on the field. Despite falling down 21-7 with 10 minutes left to play in the 3rd quarter, North Dakota State did not panic. The next drive they went down the field on an 11 play, 75 yard drive to cut the lead to 21-14. That drive consisted of 6 runs and 5 pass that took 6:15 off the clock.

Another reason for North Dakota State's upset is their 3rd down defense. They only allowed two 3rd down conversions on 10 attempts. Kansas State had an average of 9.6 yards to go on their 10 third down attempts. When it is 3rd down and long to go, it is a lot easier to know what is coming. That works into the next reason.

A third reason for the upset is the poor running offensive display by Kansas State. Kansas State had 41 yards on 23 carries for the entire game. The lack of running game did not create any 3rd down and manageable situations. This is where the loss of Collin Klein comes in. Klein was a threat to pass or run even if it was 3rd and long. He forced defenses to use more defenders to spy on him and make sure he did not get an easy run. That threat was not evident last night except for 2 runs by backup QB Daniel Sams. I wonder if he had been used more would we just be talking about a missed upset?

Finally, North Dakota State had a lot of practice with this offense in the past. They had to deal with the spread offense the previous two years in the FCS Championship against Sam Houston State. They happened to win both of those contests and thus came into the game as back-to-back FCS Champions. Having a years worth of Collin Klein led tape of Kansas State's offense certainly helped as well. And they knew they did not have to deal with a QB of Collin Klein's ability.

While many will be surprised by these FCS over FBS upsets, I am not. As noted in my previous post, the FCS teams are getting better and better. It also doesn't hurt when these games take place the first week of the season when heat and humidity (and conditioning) are a factor. I have a feeling we are not done with the FCS upsets this season. Be sure to enjoy the games this weekend and this season!!

College Football Week 1 Musings - Thursday Edition

College Football Week 1

Thursday, August 29, 2013

• One off the radar game that caught my eye was Tulsa at Bowling Green. Bowling Green shut down a high powered Tulsa offense in a very impressive performance. A great test of the BG defense is in 2 weeks on the road against Indiana.

• Utah State QB Chuckie Keeton will make life very difficult for defenses in the Mountain West. He was 31 for 40 for 314 yards with 2 TD's and also had 85 yards and a TD on 15 carries. 

• What a game put on by Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. Early it looked like it would be all Ole Miss. By halftime, Vanderbilt scored 21 points unanswered to go up 21-10. The performance by Jordan Matthews and Jeff Scott in the last 2 minutes is what makes college football so entertaining. Oh and the lack of defense doesn't hurt.

• Another entertaining game, if you stayed up to watch it, was Rutgers at Fresno State. The back and forth game saw each team go up and down the field at will with Fresno State winning 52-51 in 1 overtime. Derek Carr  of Fresno State (and younger brother of former #1 pick David Carr) was 52 for 73 for 456 yards, 5 TD's and 1 Interception. Gary Nova of Rutgers also had a solid performance going 26 of 41 for 348 yards, 5 TD's and 1 INT. RB Paul James of Rutgers also put on a show with 22 carries for 182 yards. 164 of those yards came in the 3rd quarter.

• In the overtime of that game between Rutgers and Fresno State, Rutgers Head Coach Kyle Flood decided to go for a 2 point conversion and the win. I have no problem with that call. As Herm Edwards famously stated, "You play to win the game!" Coach Flood certainly did even if the outcome was a loss. I applaud him for attempting to end the game that saw very little defensive resistance.

• I caught a little bit of the USC at Hawaii game and I was VERY unimpressed by USC. The QB's looked uncomfortable throughout and lacked confidence. Offensively, this entire game was awful to watch. The 2 QB's for USC and 1 QB for Hawaii combined to go 31 for 70. I'm not sure how many wins USC will get with the quarterback play that was presented last night.

• Finally, we come to the FCS portion of this post. #11 Towson (FCS Ranking per The SportsNetwork) went into Storrs and upset Connecticut. I watched the 4th quarter of this game and was impressed by the Towson team. On 3rd and 13 from their own 40, Towson threw deep and was able to get to the UConn 15 yard line. Later on the same drive, Towson went for it on 4th and 1 from the UConn 6, which resulted in a TD. Later in the game, with less than 1 minute to play, Towson again went for it on 4th and Goal from the UConn 5 and got another TD. It is easy to understand why Towson went for it, their kicker Soven had missed 2 extra points earlier in the game. When I watched these plays, it was clear that Towson was playing to win the game. And they certainly deserved to win this game against UConn.

• Another FCS team also beat an FBS team. Southern Utah went on the road to South Alabama and won 22-21. South Alabama is a full member of the Sun Belt Conference for those who are unaware. The FCS versus FBS "upsets" are not surprising to me. They occur each year and it is obvious that the FCS teams are getting better.

3 Questions regarding the 2013 NFL Divisional Round

3 Questions regarding the 2013 NFL Divisional Round

With the Wild Card round finished, let's look ahead to the Divisional round of the NFL Playoffs. Here are 3 questions I have:

1. Will the Ravens, Texans, and Packers get revenge?

3 of the 4 Divisional round games are rematches. The Baltimore-Denver game is a rematch of Week 15 and the Houston-New England game is a rematch of Week 14. The Green Bay-San Francisco game is a rematch of Week 1 and seems like a lifetime ago.

From this chair, I have a hard time seeing Baltimore reverse the outcome of their previous match-up with Denver. The Broncos are the hottest team in the NFL right now with 11 straight wins and one Peyton Manning. The defense is playing incredibly well and Denver is 7-1 at home. As of this writing, Denver is favored by 9.5 points.

I feel the same way about Houston's chances versus New England as I do Baltimore's chances against Denver. Not only does the Week 14 beat down by New England still linger, but Houston did not look impressive in their Wild Card home win against Cincinnati. I like how New England's defense ended the regular season with a 28-0 win at home against Miami. Sure, it was against the Dolphins, but this was New England's first shutout since a 59-0 blowout on October 18, 2009 against Tennessee. Not to mention, New England's defense has been much maligned in the last several years. New England is currently favored by 9 points.

The third and final rematch of the Divisional round is Green Bay at San Francisco. San Francisco went into Lambeau and won 30-22 in Week 1. Both teams had their ups and downs over the course of the season. Offensively we will see a contrast as the 49ers will run the ball and the Packers will throw the ball around the field. Charles Woodson returned for Green Bay in the Wild Card round, but that was against Christian Ponder-less Minnesota. On paper this game looks close and I can only hope it matches some of the classic games we've seen these 2 teams play in the past. If I was forced to pick the winner of this game, I would pick San Francisco. San Francisco is favored by 3 points.

2. Will Matt Ryan and Atlanta finally win a playoff game?

This is one you may hear all week. Matt Ryan is 0-3 in the playoffs as the starting QB for the Atlanta Falcons. On top of the 0-3 playoff record, Atlanta has been taken lightly the entire season. Atlanta fans will not like hearing this critique, but the detractors are correct. That said, Atlanta fans are also correct in their defense of Ryan and Atlanta.

In 3 playoff starts, Matt Ryan hasn't played great. His stats are 70 of 110 (63.6% completions) for 584 yards, 3 TD's, and 4 INT's. In 2008, the Falcons lost 30-24 on the road against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals ended up losing in Super Bowl 43 to the Steelers. In 2010 as the NFC #1 Seed, Atlanta was blown out at home 48-21 to the Green Bay Packers. The Packers went on to win Super Bowl 45. In 2011, Atlanta went on the road and lost 24-2 to the New York Giants. The Giants went on to win Super Bowl 46.

It's clear that when Atlanta loses, they lose to teams that end up in the Super Bowl or win the Super Bowl. 2 of the 3 games were on the road, which is a nice segue into my next point. Matt Ryan has a home record of 35-5 in the NFL regular season. If you include the 2010 Playoff loss to the Packers, Ryan's home record is 35-6. It's hard to argue with 35-6 at home especially with the Falcon's record this year.

Given the small sample of Ryan's playoff career, there is not sufficient evidence to say Ryan and Atlanta cannot win in the playoffs. In those 3 games though, Ryan hasn't exactly set the world on fire. Remember, it took Peyton Manning until his 4th post-season game to get his first win.

3. How will the Bye week affect Atlanta, San Francisco, Denver, and New England?

Let's start with the easiest team: New England Patriots. Under Bill Belichick, New England is 5-1 in the Divisional round after a bye. Their only loss was in 2010 to the New York Jets. For the Patriots, having the bye will undoubtedly help.

As for the other 3 teams, it is very difficult to decipher whether or not the bye will help. Mike Smith (Atlanta) and John Fox (Denver) are 0-1 as Head Coaches after a bye in the playoffs. Jim Harbaugh (San Francisco) is 1-0. Peyton Manning is 1-3 off a bye week as a starting QB, with all 4 of those starts belonging to his time in Indianapolis.

I don't foresee the bye week hurting any team, but it is always difficult to say so with any level of certainty. Each player and team reacts differently to a bye week. Another factor to consider is the opponent of team that had the bye. Sometimes you just lose to a hot team and the bye week is not a factor (or excuse).

2012 NFL Betting Odds

2012 NFL Betting Odds

Here is a basic spreadsheet of the 2012 NFL Regular Season Betting Odds. The link above will allow you to download the Excel file. I will update the spreadsheet after each round of the NFL Playoffs.

Update 6:52 PM: The spreadsheet has been updated to include the Wild Card games.