Understanding the New Kentucky Derby Points System
2013 marks a new era for the Kentucky Derby with the advent of a Points System to determine the starters in the Run for the Roses. Before we can delve into the new system, we need to look at the old system and some of the pitfalls.
The Graded Earnings Rule
Prior to 2013, Churchill Downs used Graded Earnings as a way to determine which horses would start in the Kentucky Derby. Any earnings a horse had in a Grade 1, Grade 2, or Grade 3 prior to the Kentucky Derby would count towards their total. The top 20 graded earning horses would start in the Kentucky Derby. One of the divisive points was that a horse's graded earnings from their 2 year old season counted the same as the earnings from their 3 year old season.
Let's use this example:
Horse A runs in the 2011 Grade 1 Breeders Cup Juvenile and wins the race. 60% of the purse is awarded to the 1st place finisher. The purse of the Breeders Cup Juvenile is $2,000,000. Therefore, Horse A has $1,200,000 in graded earnings. These earnings are more than sufficient for Horse A to run in the 2012 Kentucky Derby.
Simply using the example above, some issues immediately come up. First, Horse A will not need to run well in another race until the Derby. Given that the Breeders Cup is run approximately 6 months before the Kentucky Derby, Horse A is set for the Kentucky Derby barring injury. Secondly, Horse A gets a free pass to the Derby based on one race at the age of 2. The horse could have peaked at age 2 and shown no maturation but would still run in the Derby because of a race 6 months before.
Certainly these are hypotheticals, but they happen. One other scenario that unfolded is a horse who ran in strictly sprint races (races less than 1 mile) had enough graded earnings to make it into the Derby. That horse, Trinniberg, finished 17th in the 2012 Kentucky Derby.
Let's take a look at the new system and how some of the concerns were addressed.
The Points System
The Points System is exactly as it sounds. The top 4 finishers in the designated races are awarded points. The amount of points awarded vary depending on the weighting of each specific race. There are 36 races that will have points awarded.
The races are broken down into 4 different categories:
- The first category is comprised of 19 races on a point scale of 10-4-2-1. These races take place from September 29, 2012 to February 18, 2013.
- The 2nd category is comprised of 8 races on a point scale of 50-20-10-5. These races are considered the "First Leg of the Kentucky Derby Championship Series" and take place from February 23, 2013 to March 24, 2013.
- The 3rd category is comprised of 7 races on a point scale of 100-40-20-10. These races are considered the "Second Leg of the Kentucky Derby Championship Series" and take place from March 30, 2013 to April 13, 2013.
- The 4th category is comprised of 2 races on a point scale of 20-8-4-2. These 2 races are called "Wild Cards" and take place from April 20, 2013 to April 27, 2013.
Here is a link to the races that comprise the Road to the Kentucky Derby via Daily Racing Form.
The point system essentially de-emphasizes 2 year old races. For the 2013 Road to the Derby, only 10 races will have points awarded for races in 2012. The Breeders Cup Juvenile is on a point scale of 10-4-2-1. Also, 2 races awarding points will be run overseas. That brings me to my next point.
Points System Critiques and Improvements
As with anything that is in it's infancy, there is room for improvement. The first is that 2 foreign run races will be awarding points and the latter race (UAE Derby) is on the points scale of 100-40-20-10. Other than 1971 Kentucky Derby winner Canonero II, horses coming from outside North America have not fared well in the Kentucky Derby, much less contended to win. To think that a foreign run horse could occupy a spot in the starting gate is mind boggling to me. Churchill Downs would be best served awarding less points to the UAE Derby races or designating it as a "Wild Card" race. There is not enough empirical evidence to support awarding 100 points to the winner of the UAE Derby.
Secondly, Churchill Downs needs to leave politics out. Noticeably absent from the list of designated races is the Grade 3 Illinois Derby. Churchill Downs owns Arlington Park in Illinois and the exclusion of the Illinois Derby is a clear political move. This stems from awarding of dates to Hawthorne Racecourse in Stickney, Illinois.
What to expect in 2013
Given this is the first year of the Kentucky Derby Points System, it is hard to know what will happen in terms of which horses will qualify. According to Churchill Downs officials, horses who earn at least 40 points are likely to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Horses with point totals of as low as 20 and as high as 150 could make it into the Kentucky Derby according to officials.
The Kentucky Derby ushers in a new era for 2013. The new Points System should simplify the understanding of how horses qualify for the Kentucky Derby.
