College Football Week 2 Musings

Week 2

• Well, the FCS division won three more games over FBS opponents. Two of the victories, Chattanooga 42-14 over Georgia State and Maine 24-14 over Massachusetts, were not unexpected. Both Georgia State and Massachusetts are completing a transition from the FCS level to the FBS level. Both rosters are made up of mostly FCS caliber talent which is why these losses are not surprising. The true upset was Nicholls State beating Western Michigan 27-23 in Kalamazoo, Michigan. In 2011 and 2012, Nicholls State went 2-20 and those two victories were over NAIA opponent Evangel. In addition, Western Michigan was coming off a solid defensive performance against Michigan State in which they were beaten 26-13.

• The game between #6 South Carolina and #11 Georgia showed that Aaron Murray can win the big one. It also showed that Jadeveon Clowney's MIA performance against North Carolina in Week 1 was no fluke. There is no doubt that Clowney is the focus of the South Carolina defense, but if he is not able to make an impact, South Carolina will not have nearly as a successful season as they hoped for. Georgia won the game 41-30.

• Week 2's other big game between #14 Notre Dame and #17 Michigan lived up to the excitement as Michigan defeated Notre Dame 41-30. Michigan's QB Devin Gardner found WR Jeremy Gallon 8 times for 184 yards and 3 TD's. Jeremy Gallon had 4 Touchdown receptions in 2012. In two games in 2013, Gallon has 4 touchdowns. Gardner also showed his escapability as a runner getting out sacks many times throughout the game and added a rushing TD.

• Devin Gardner's overall performance was excellent except for one play early in the 4th quarter which was the Notre Dame interception in the Michigan end zone. Gardner should have taken the sack and the safety instead of his ill-fated attempt to throw the ball away. Let's also give credit to Stephon Tuitt for making that tough catch. After all, he is a defensive lineman.

• Finally, we come to the USC Trojans' 10-7 loss versus Washington State. It was a horrendous display by the USC Trojans' quarterbacks. As I noted in my Week 1 post, I was not impressed by the USC quarterbacks' performance in Week 1. Well, Week 2 against Washington State was worse than Week 1 against Hawaii. Here are the stats: Cody Kessler and Max Wittek combined to go 11 for 21 for 54 yards and 2 interceptions. The three service academies (Army, Navy, and Air Force) all managed to throw for more yards than USC. All three of those teams run the triple option. USC WR Marqise Lee had 7 catches for 27 yards. No team with Marqise Lee as a #1 WR should throw for 54 yards for the entire game. I believe Lane Kiffin is gone at the end of the season because it will be hard to salvage more than 6 or 7 wins with the quarterbacks he has at his disposal. How many people thought Mike Leach would win a game at Washington State while only scoring 10 points? I certainly did not.

College Football Week 1 Musings - Saturday Edition

Saturday, August 31, 2013

• I might as well get the FCS upsets out of the way first. Four FCS teams, Eastern Washington, McNeese State, Eastern Illinois, and Northern Iowa, went on the road and upset FBS teams. Those four upsets were (final score in parentheses): Eastern Washington over #25 Oregon State (49-46); McNeese State over South Florida (53-21); Eastern Illinois over San Diego State (40-19); and Northern Iowa over Iowa State (28-20). The most impressive of the four upsets was Eastern Washington, specifically the play of their QB Vernon Adams and the resiliency of the team. At halftime, Eastern Washington was up 29-17, but Oregon State came storming back and took a 32-29 lead in the 3rd quarter. Both teams fought back and forth until Vernon Adams led a last minute drive that gave Eastern Washington the upset. Vernon Adams made a name for himself by accounting for 518 yards of total offense. He went 23 for 30 for 411 yards and 4 TD's. In addition, he had 107 yards and 2 TD's on 16 rushes. It truly was a deserved win for the Eagles of Eastern Washington.

• The most surprising of those four upsets goes to Eastern Illinois over San Diego State. San Diego State is considered one of the favorites to make it to the Mountain West Championship. It is one thing to lose a close game, but San Diego State was blown out on their own field, 40-19. It will be interesting to see how San Diego State responds to this defeat and how it will impact the rest of their season.

• FCS teams also produced some other scares around the country. West Virginia needed 17 second half points to beat William & Mary 24-17. Boston College also needed 17 second half points to defeat a stubborn Villanova squad 24-14. Southern Illinois almost erased an 18 point halftime deficit against Illinois, but came up empty on 4th and goal from the Illini 3 yard line with 44 seconds left. Illinois won the game 42-34. Howard University held a 24-13 lead with 5 minutes remaining 3rd quarter against Eastern Michigan, but 21 unanswered points allayed any upset fears as Eastern Michigan won 34-24.

• After losing to Iowa by a point, 18-17, in 2012, Northern Illinois exacted revenge with a 30-27 win over Iowa in Iowa City. Northern Illinois had a 10-0 lead late in the 1st quarter and were driving for another potential score until a fumble by TE Luke Eakes was scooped up and returned for a TD to cut the lead to 10-7. At that point, the momentum shifted to Iowa until the 4th quarter when NIU tied the game at 27. With 1:30 left to go, Iowa was on their own 45 yard line. On the ensuing play Iowa QB Jake Rudock behind his WR and the pass was intercepted. The interception eventually led to NIU's game winning FG. I wonder how much goodwill is in the bank for Kirk Ferentz at Iowa if the team continues to decline as it has the past 3 seasons.

• #1, and already 3-time BCS National Champions elect by the media, Alabama, appeared, well, vulnerable in their 35-10 victory over Virginia Tech. The offensive line did not look good and AJ McCarron went 10 for 23 with 110 yards. Yes Virginia Tech and Bud Foster are a tough, blue collared defense, but the performance by the Alabama offense was mediocre for such a talented group. Outside of the 77 yard TD run by Virginia Tech's Trey Edmunds, the defense for Alabama was stifling. Good thing Nick Saban has two weeks to prepare for Texas A&M because the offense will need it to get better.

• One score that jumped off the page was seeing Nebraska eke out a 3 point victory over Wyoming, 37-34. A closer look at the box score still does not make the victory appear any better. Nebraska's vaunted "blackshirt" defense gave up 602 yards. 602 yards. They gave up an average of 7.3 yards per carry. Granted Wyoming does have a very fast up-tempo offense, but Nebraska should not be giving up that kind of yardage. Head coach Bo Pelini gave 7 starters their blackshirts before the game. He may want to take those back after seeing that awful performance.

• #5 Georgia and #8 Clemson lived up to the billing of two top 10 teams. While there was not much defense played early, both defenses eventually settled down in a very entertaining and intense game. Until the 4th quarter, it felt as if either team could win, with Clemson eventually gaining the upper hand and winning 38-35. The message boards were fired up in the aftermath of the loss for Georgia. I saw calls for Mark Richt to be fired and Aaron Murray to benched in the upcoming big games against South Carolina and LSU, but those posts are overreacting to the loss. It was the first game of the season and Georgia was on the road in the hostile environment of Clemson's Death Valley. It is not as if Georgia got ran out of the building, the game was close throughout until a few 4th quarter mistakes. Next week is a chance at redemption as Georgia hosts South Carolina.

• #12 LSU put on a strong performance against #20 TCU, who were not disgraced in defeat. LSU QB Zach Mettenberger had a strong, confident performance as LSU beat TCU 37-27. The best facet of the game for both teams was the Return units. Odell Beckham for LSU and B.J. Catalon for TCU both had some excellent returns that aided their teams respectively. LSU is definitely a contender in the SEC West (and for the SEC Championship) while TCU looks like they will challenge Texas, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma for the Big 12 title.

• I managed to catch the late kickoff between #22 Northwestern and California and I was glad I did. Northwestern really showed grit and determination to win 44-30 on the road. Northwestern lost their starting QB Kain Colter on the very first drive of the game to a concussion. Backup Trevor Siemian filled in nicely in Colter's absence. Northwestern also lost their starting RB Venric Mark to a hamstring injury, but it was not enough for Cal to win. Cal QB Jared Goff put on a tremendous performance as he became the first true freshman to start a season opener at QB for Cal. He had 445 yards passing with 2 TD's, but he also threw 3 interceptions. Two of those interceptions were returned for TD's by Northwestern LB Collin Ellis. In defense of Goff, both of those interceptions were deflected and nabbed by Ellis. Despite the loss Cal appears to have a bright future under head coach Sonny Dykes and QB Jared Goff.

Breaking Down North Dakota State's Win Over Kansas State

How North Dakota State Beat Kansas State

I was fortunate enough to watch this game in its entirety and what a game it was. North Dakota State engineered a game clinching 18 play, 80 yard drive that took 8:30 off the clock and left Kansas State with 28 seconds to come up with a miracle. As impressive as that final drive was, there are other factors that need to be mentioned to decipher how North Dakota State went into Manhattan, Kansas and upset Kansas State.

First and foremost, North Dakota State won the game by sticking to their game plan. They are a possession team that uses short passes and running to control the clock and keep the opposing defense on the field. Despite falling down 21-7 with 10 minutes left to play in the 3rd quarter, North Dakota State did not panic. The next drive they went down the field on an 11 play, 75 yard drive to cut the lead to 21-14. That drive consisted of 6 runs and 5 pass that took 6:15 off the clock.

Another reason for North Dakota State's upset is their 3rd down defense. They only allowed two 3rd down conversions on 10 attempts. Kansas State had an average of 9.6 yards to go on their 10 third down attempts. When it is 3rd down and long to go, it is a lot easier to know what is coming. That works into the next reason.

A third reason for the upset is the poor running offensive display by Kansas State. Kansas State had 41 yards on 23 carries for the entire game. The lack of running game did not create any 3rd down and manageable situations. This is where the loss of Collin Klein comes in. Klein was a threat to pass or run even if it was 3rd and long. He forced defenses to use more defenders to spy on him and make sure he did not get an easy run. That threat was not evident last night except for 2 runs by backup QB Daniel Sams. I wonder if he had been used more would we just be talking about a missed upset?

Finally, North Dakota State had a lot of practice with this offense in the past. They had to deal with the spread offense the previous two years in the FCS Championship against Sam Houston State. They happened to win both of those contests and thus came into the game as back-to-back FCS Champions. Having a years worth of Collin Klein led tape of Kansas State's offense certainly helped as well. And they knew they did not have to deal with a QB of Collin Klein's ability.

While many will be surprised by these FCS over FBS upsets, I am not. As noted in my previous post, the FCS teams are getting better and better. It also doesn't hurt when these games take place the first week of the season when heat and humidity (and conditioning) are a factor. I have a feeling we are not done with the FCS upsets this season. Be sure to enjoy the games this weekend and this season!!

College Football Week 1 Musings - Thursday Edition

College Football Week 1

Thursday, August 29, 2013

• One off the radar game that caught my eye was Tulsa at Bowling Green. Bowling Green shut down a high powered Tulsa offense in a very impressive performance. A great test of the BG defense is in 2 weeks on the road against Indiana.

• Utah State QB Chuckie Keeton will make life very difficult for defenses in the Mountain West. He was 31 for 40 for 314 yards with 2 TD's and also had 85 yards and a TD on 15 carries. 

• What a game put on by Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. Early it looked like it would be all Ole Miss. By halftime, Vanderbilt scored 21 points unanswered to go up 21-10. The performance by Jordan Matthews and Jeff Scott in the last 2 minutes is what makes college football so entertaining. Oh and the lack of defense doesn't hurt.

• Another entertaining game, if you stayed up to watch it, was Rutgers at Fresno State. The back and forth game saw each team go up and down the field at will with Fresno State winning 52-51 in 1 overtime. Derek Carr  of Fresno State (and younger brother of former #1 pick David Carr) was 52 for 73 for 456 yards, 5 TD's and 1 Interception. Gary Nova of Rutgers also had a solid performance going 26 of 41 for 348 yards, 5 TD's and 1 INT. RB Paul James of Rutgers also put on a show with 22 carries for 182 yards. 164 of those yards came in the 3rd quarter.

• In the overtime of that game between Rutgers and Fresno State, Rutgers Head Coach Kyle Flood decided to go for a 2 point conversion and the win. I have no problem with that call. As Herm Edwards famously stated, "You play to win the game!" Coach Flood certainly did even if the outcome was a loss. I applaud him for attempting to end the game that saw very little defensive resistance.

• I caught a little bit of the USC at Hawaii game and I was VERY unimpressed by USC. The QB's looked uncomfortable throughout and lacked confidence. Offensively, this entire game was awful to watch. The 2 QB's for USC and 1 QB for Hawaii combined to go 31 for 70. I'm not sure how many wins USC will get with the quarterback play that was presented last night.

• Finally, we come to the FCS portion of this post. #11 Towson (FCS Ranking per The SportsNetwork) went into Storrs and upset Connecticut. I watched the 4th quarter of this game and was impressed by the Towson team. On 3rd and 13 from their own 40, Towson threw deep and was able to get to the UConn 15 yard line. Later on the same drive, Towson went for it on 4th and 1 from the UConn 6, which resulted in a TD. Later in the game, with less than 1 minute to play, Towson again went for it on 4th and Goal from the UConn 5 and got another TD. It is easy to understand why Towson went for it, their kicker Soven had missed 2 extra points earlier in the game. When I watched these plays, it was clear that Towson was playing to win the game. And they certainly deserved to win this game against UConn.

• Another FCS team also beat an FBS team. Southern Utah went on the road to South Alabama and won 22-21. South Alabama is a full member of the Sun Belt Conference for those who are unaware. The FCS versus FBS "upsets" are not surprising to me. They occur each year and it is obvious that the FCS teams are getting better.

2013 Stephen Foster Handicap Preview

2013 Stephen Foster Handicap

A compact, but quality field of 6 horses comprises the 2013 Stephen Foster Handicap. Reigning Breeders' Cup Classic Winner Fort Larned is joined by Golden Ticket, Ron The Greek, Take Charge Indy, Pool Play, and Successful Dan. Every horse in the race is a graded stakes winner and every horse except Successful Dan has won at least one Grade 1 race.

The Stephen Foster is a "Win and You're In" race for the Breeders' Cup Challenge. The winner will be guaranteed a spot in the starting gate for the Breeders' Cup Classic in November.

The Stephen Foster Handicap is scheduled as Race 8 on Churchill Downs' card for Saturday, June 15. Entries can be found here via Daily Racing Form and free past performances can be found here via Brisnet.

#1 Golden Ticket (12-1) - The 2012 Travers Stakes winner has run four times in 2013. He has 2 wins, but both of those wins came in Allowance races. His other two races were a 3rd place finish in the Grade 3 Mineshaft at Fair Grounds and a 4th place finish in the Grade 3 Skip Away. I think Golden Ticket is a cut below the top horses in this race, but he does have a few factors in his favor. First, there appears to a lot of speed in this race and he can layoff the pace. Even if the speed does not materialize, he can lay close enough to have a chance. Secondly, Golden Ticket has shown he likes the Churchill Downs dirt track. In 4 lifetime starts, he has 1 win and 2 seconds. I rate Golden Ticket a cut below the best, but he can certainly finish in the money.

#2 Fort Larned (3-1) - Last year's Breeders' Cup Classic Winner has yet to come close to reproducing the form that won him that race. In his first start of the year in the Gulfstream Park Handicap, he stumbled out of the gate and lost his jockey. In his 2nd race of the year, he stalked the pace in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap, but he had nothing in the stretch. I am going to lean against him based on his performance in the Oaklawn Handicap. He had a hot pace in front of him and just hit a wall in the stretch. He does have a nice stretch of workouts since May 19, but the probable price he will be is not worth the wager.

#3 Ron The Greek (3-1) - The 2012 winner of the Santa Anita Handicap and Stephen Foster comes into this race off a 3rd place finish in the Charles Town Classic. Ron The Greek gets away from his nemesis Game On Dude and if he gets a hot pace ahead of him, he rates a serious threat. He is working well and is trained by Bill Mott. Expect him to in 5th or 6th early and make a run in the stretch. He is a must use on top.

#4 Take Charge Indy (5-2) - The son of A.P. Indy is coming off a dominating performance in the Grade 2 Alysheba on the Kentucky Oaks undercard in which he won by 6 lengths. Since his 19th place finish in the Kentucky Derby in 2012, he has 5 starts and hit the board in all starts. Despite the amount of speed in the race, he does best when he is on or near the lead. His last workout on June 8 was stellar and he is my top pick to win.

#5 Pool Play (15-1) - Pool Play won this race in 2011 with a great stretch run at 36-1. Since that time he has not been nearly as successful. He has 8 races with only 1 win (2012 Hawthorne Gold Cup). He last two races have both resulted in 6th place finishes. This guy will settle at the back of the field and try to make one run in the stretch. Given his recent races, I think Pool Play will have a tough chance to win. At best he may he the board.

#6 Successful Dan (2-1) - The 2-1 morning line favorite is a half brother to reigning Horse of the Year, Wise Dan. His last race was the Grade 3 Ben Ali at Keeneland at a distance of 1 1/8 Miles on the All-Weather Track. In that race he set a slow pace and used that to his advantage as he won gate to wire. The Ben Ali was his first start in 10 months and his workouts since then have been excellent. I think he will sit behind Take Charge Indy and Fort Larned, but if the race is slow enough he will press the pace. He is a must use in the win spot.

Good luck to those that wager on the Stephen Foster Handicap.

2013 FIFA Confederations Cup

2013 FIFA Confederations Cup

We are one year away from the start of the 2014 FIFA World Cup. The Confederations Cup is a chance to see a possible preview of next summer. Eight teams compete in the Confederations Cup from the six different Confederations. Those teams are Brazil (Hosts), Spain (2010 FIFA World Cup Champions), Japan (2011 AFC Asian Cup Winner), Mexico (2011 CONCACAF Gold Cup Winner), Uruguay (2011 Copa America Winner), Tahiti (2012 OFC Nations Cup Winner), Italy (2012 UEFA Euro Runner-up), and Nigeria (2013 Africa Cup of Nations Winner). Please note, the 2012 UEFA Euro Winner was Spain, but due to them already having a spot for their 2010 World Cup Victory, the invitation went to Italy, the runner up of 2012 UEFA Euro.

The eight teams were broken down into two groups of four. Group A consists of Brazil, Japan, Mexico, and Italy. Group B consists of Spain, Uruguay, Tahiti, and Nigeria. Here is my breakdown:

Group A

This is the tougher of the two groups and all 4 teams have a chance at qualifying to the Semi-finals.

Brazil

Brazil comes into this tournament after 2 friendlies against England and France. Against England, Brazil went ahead 1-0 after a Fred goal, but gave up two 2nd half goals to Oxlade-Chamberlain and Rooney. Brazil came back late to tie the game through a Paulinho goal as the match finished 2-2.

Against France, Brazil had trouble getting through the French defense, but they broke through in the 2nd half with goals from Oscar, Hernanes, and Lucas (PG).

This is the litmus test for Luiz Felipe Scolari. Brazil have played 7 games since he took over as Manager and this tournament is our chance to see what he has learned. I expect Brazil to win Group A, but I would not be surprised to them draw with Japan and Italy.

Brazil Matches

June 15, 2013 vs Japan

June 19, 2013 vs Mexico

June 22, 2013 vs Italy

Japan

Japan enters the Confederations Cup off 2 World Cup Qualifying matches in Asia. The first of those 2 games, against Australia, was a 1-1 draw that saw Japan become the first team to qualify for the World Cup. Japan gave up an 82nd minute goal to Tommy Oar and looked to have lost all 3 points until Keisuke Honda converted a Penalty in stoppage time to salvage the draw.

Japan's second game was against Iraq in which the stubborn Iraqi defense did not crumble until the 89th minute. Shinji Okazaki scored that goal to give Japan the 1-0 victory and eliminated Iraq from World Cup Finals contention.

Japan is a disciplined team and that will help them against teams like Brazil and Italy. I expect Japan to be competitive in all 3 games and if they can get a win and two draws out of their 3 games, they should be able to advance to the semi-finals.

Japan Matches

June 15, 2013 vs Brazil

June 19, 2013 vs Italy

June 22, 2013 vs Mexico

Mexico

The best way to describe how Mexico is coming into the Confederations Cup is underwhelming. In 2013, Mexico has played 9 games and they are undefeated. However, they only have 1 win to go along with 8 draws. 5 of those draws were scoreless. The last two games took place in CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying against Panama and Costa Rica. Those two games both ended at 0-0.

Mexico has lacked that finishing prowess needed in the penalty box since the start of the year. I think that will come into play at this tournament. I think Mexico's defense keeps them in all 3 games, but their lack of offense will ultimately hurt them here. If Mexico can get their offense going, which is far from a sure thing, they are dangerous.

Mexico Matches

June 16, 2013 vs Italy

June 19, 2013 vs Brazil

June 22, 2013 vs Japan

Italy

Italy is coming into the Confederations Cup after two friendlies with a World Cup Qualifying match sandwiched between. On May 31, Italy demolished San Marino 4-0 in Bologna. 7 days later, they played the Czech Republic to scoreless draw that saw Mario Balotelli sent off in the 72nd minute after his second yellow card. That was his 2nd yellow card in 3 minutes. In their 3rd game of the sequence, they played Haiti to a 2-2 draw. A first minute goal by Giaccherini put Italy in a perfect position and the 72nd minute goal by Marchisio looked to have sealed the game. Two late goals from Haiti cost Italy the win and made the defense look incredibly shaky.

The game against Haiti causes some concern from a defensive standpoint for me, but I think Italy will ultimately overcome that. When I look back on Euro 2012, I saw an Italian team that grew more and more confident as the tournament went on. I expect Balotelli and Italy to have another big tournament in Brazil. As always with Balotelli, the concern is whether he keeps his head in the game and not get frustrated.

Italy Matches

June 16, 2013 vs Mexico

June 19, 2013 vs Japan

June 22, 2013 vs Brazil

Group A Historical Head-to-Head Results

Brazil vs Japan - 4 matches, 2 Wins for Brazil and 2 Draws

Mexico vs Italy - 4 matches, 1 Win for Mexico, 1 Win for Italy, 2 Draws

Brazil vs Mexico - 23 matches, 14 Wins for Brazil, 8 Wins for Mexico, 1 Draw

Italy vs Japan - 1 match, 1 Draw

Italy vs Brazil - 9 matches, 5 Wins for Brazil, 2 Wins for Italy, 2 Draws

Japan vs Mexico - 1 match, 1 Win for Mexico

Group B

This group is the easier of the 2 and is all about Spain. Spain should easily win this group and 3 matches. 2nd place will come down to Uruguay and Nigeria. Tahiti looks to be overmatched in this tournament.

Spain

We all know the extolls of the Spanish side. In 2009, Spain won Group A of the Confederations Cup, but were upset by the United States 2-0 in the Semi-finals. It was a disappointment given the domination they showed prior to the United States game.

Spain played two friendlies against Haiti and Republic of Ireland to prep for this tournament. They took an early 2-0 lead over Haiti through Cazorla and Fabregas before conceding a late goal to Guerrier of Haiti. Spain won 2-1 and three days later beat Republic of Ireland 2-0. It took 68 minutes before the Spaniards broke through the Irish defense with a goal from Soldado. 20 minutes later Juan Mata added a second. The two games in four days is excellent preparation for the Confederations Cup.

I expect Spain to win all 3 games with ease and coast into the Semi-finals.

Spain Matches

June 16, 2013 vs Uruguay

June 20, 2013 vs Tahiti

June 23, 2013 vs Nigeria

Uruguay

After a rough start to 2013, Uruguay has put together two solid performances against France and Venezuela. A 50th minute Luis Saurez goal is all that stood between France and Uruguay in a friendly on June 5. On June 11, Uruguay took a 1-0 through a wonderful Edison Cavani goal and was able to stave off a furious late finish by 10 man Venezuela for a 1-0 victory.

For Uruguay, I expect an opening game loss against Spain and a victory of Tahiti. The game against Nigeria will determine which one of those two teams goes on to the semi-finals.

Uruguay Matches

June 16, 2013 vs Spain

June 20, 2013 vs Nigeria

June 23, 2013 vs Tahiti

Tahiti

The Winners of the OFC Nations Cup have a tough hill to climb. They have not played any recent matches and have recorded a Win over Solomon Islands and a loss against New Caledonia in their 2 matches this year. I fully expect Tahiti to lose all 3 games. This tournament will be a great experience, but to get even a point is asking a lot.

Tahiti Matches

June 17, 2013 vs Nigeria

June 20, 2013 vs Spain

June 23, 2013 vs Uruguay

Nigeria

The 2013 Africa Cup of Nations Winners look to build upon their success. After winning against Kenya 1-0 and needing a late goal against Namibia to draw 1-1, Nigeria have a good shot at making it to the Semi-finals of this tournament. As I stated earlier, the game against Uruguay will be huge. If Uruguay and Nigeria draw, it will come down to goal differential. 

Nigeria Matches

June 17, 2013 vs Tahiti

June 20, 2013 vs Uruguay

June 23, 2013 vs Spain

Group B Historical Head-to-Head Results

Spain vs Uruguay - 6 matches, 3 Wins for Spain, 3 Draws

Tahiti vs Nigeria - No matches

Spain vs Tahiti - No matches

Nigeria vs Uruguay - No matches

Nigeria vs Spain - 1 match, 1 Win for Nigeria

Uruguay vs Tahiti - No matches

My Predictions

From Group A, I see Brazil winning and Italy taking 2nd to make it through to the Semi-finals. I could easily see Japan making it through in place of either Brazil and Italy. From Group B, I will take Spain to win and Nigeria to finish 2nd. Again, Uruguay could make it through, but I like Nigeria after the Africa Cup of Nations victory in February.

For the Semi-Finals I see Brazil beating Nigeria and Spain beating Italy. If Italy can manage to win Group A, I believe they would make finals against the Spain/Brazil winner.

If things go according to my predictions, we will see a Brazil vs Spain final. That would be one hell of a matchup just one year before the World Cup. After their failure in the 2009 Confederations Cup, I see Spain winning yet another tournament this year. At this point, I cannot go against Spain because they are firing on all cylinders.

2013 Breeders' Cup Challenge

Breeders' Cup Challenge

With the completion of the Triple Crown, the attention of horse racing switches toward the Breeders' Cup. The 2013 Breeders' Cup will take place at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California on Friday, November 1 and Saturday, November 2. While the Breeders' Cup is still five and a half months away, there is a series of races leading up until then that will become the focus. This series of races is called the Breeders' Cup Challenge.

The Breeders' Cup Challenge consists of 67 races in which the winners are guaranteed a spot in their respective Division. For example, on January 12, Variety Club won the L'Ormarins Queen's Plate at Kenilworth Race Track in South Africa. For this victory, Variety Club is guaranteed entry into the Turf Mile at the Breeders' Cup. Here is the entire schedule from Breederscup.com.

Only four of the 67 races have been run and all of those were overseas. The first race in North America will be the Stephen Foster Handicap this Saturday, June 15 at Churchill Downs. Only six horses entered the Stephen Foster including 2012 Breeders' Cup Classic Winner, Fort Larned. Entries can be found here via Daily Racing Form.

Issues with the Breeders' Cup Challenge

Overall, the idea of the Breeders' Cup Challenge is well intentioned and works well to drive fan interest between the Triple Crown races and the Breeders' Cup. There are a couple of issues that standout. First, there is a disparity in the amount of races for Breeders' Cup Turf and the Breeders' Cup Marathon. 10 horses are guaranteed entry for the Turf while just one is guaranteed for the Marathon. This stems from the lack of American horses that are pointed towards long distance races (1 1/4 miles and longer). I can understand that point of view, but there are races ran at 1 1/2 Miles and 1 3/4 Miles that could be designated a "Win and You're In" race. Two examples that come to mind are the Cougar II Handicap at Del Mar and the Greenwood Stakes at Parx. Both of those races were on the "Win and You're In" in 2008 and 2009, but have been absent since then. Another race that could also be included is the Brooklyn Handicap that is run the day prior to the Belmont Stakes. Currently, the only race that is on the "Win and You're In" for the Marathon is the Clasico Belgrano which is run in Argentina. I believe one or two more races in the United States or Europe should be added for the Marathon Division.

Secondly, I noticed the Bing Crosby Stakes at Del Mar is a "Win and You're In" for the Turf Sprint. However, the Bing Crosby is run on the main track, which leaves me scratching my head. There are surely other Turf Sprint races that could be designated as a "Win and You're In" as opposed to the Bing Crosby Stakes. The Bing Crosby Stakes would be better served as a "Win and You're In" for the Breeders' Cup Sprint. Another race that stands out as not fitting is the Connolly’s Red Mills Lowther Stakes run at York in the United Kingdom. The Connolly is run at 6 Furlongs, while the Juvenile Fillies is 1 mile. I love the idea of having a European prep race as a "Win and You're In", but I think it should be at least 7 Furlongs.

2013 Belmont Stakes Day Recap

Belmont Stakes Recap

Palace Malice deserves credit for his effort. He ran up close to a quick pace and still had enough left to hang on for the victory. Oxbow also deserves credit for his effort in the Belmont. He pressed the pace throughout and hung on for 2nd after racing in the previous two Triple Crown Races. Despite finishing 3rd, Orb has to be considered a disappointment. He was at his home track, had a perfect pace scenario, but only had enough to finish 3rd. The fact that he could not beat horses near the lead in Palace Malice and Oxbow is not a good sign. Orb has shown he is a one run closer. The same applies to Revolutionary who finished 5th in the Belmont. With a 13th Place finish in the Belmont, Freedom Child showed he was the beneficiary of Speed biased track in his Peter Pan victory. I also wonder whether he is a need the lead type which is how he won his 2 races.

The jury is still out about how good the 3 year old crop is. It does not look very good at this point after seeing the 3 year olds beat up on each other in the Triple Crown. In fairness, we have not seen the top 3 year olds face older horses yet and there is still 5 months to the Breeders Cup Classic. At this point I am hopeful, but not optimistic the next 5 months will produce a 3 year old that will be competitive with older horses.

Undercard Thoughts

Race 6 - Easy Goer Stakes (1 1/16 Miles on Dirt)

This race was all about #2 Power Broker who received a 99 Beyer Speed Figure for his win. He set solid fractions en route to a gate to wire victory. Based upon his races, he has shown an affinity for 8.5 Furlong (1 1/16 Miles) races and that could lead him to being a factor in the Dirt Mile division.

Race 7 - Grade 2 True North Handicap (6 Furlongs on Dirt)

The ultra-talented, yet extremely fragile Fast Bullet gave a very good performance. Keep in mind, this guy was making his first start in 6 months and he did not look tired one bit during the final sixteenth of a mile. He earned a BSF of 110 which gives him three Beyer numbers of 100 or greater in just five career starts. As long as Fast Bullet is healthy I would expect him to have a BIG say in the Breeders Cup Sprint at Santa Anita in November. 

Race 8 - Grade 1 Just A Game Stakes (1 Mile on Turf)

It is more than safe to say that Stephanie's Kitten likes a turf course with moisture in it. She is now 4 for 4 lifetime when the Turf is not listed as firm. Coincidentally, all 4 of those wins came at a distance of 1 Mile. She earned a Beyer number of 101 for this race and she is really developing into a nice filly. I would expect to hear from her down the road to the Breeders Cup. Noteworthy is the runner up, Better Lucky, who had a position throughout the race but was unable to get the beter of Stephanie's Kitten. Better Lucky certainly has the talent and ability to be competitive in the Filly & Mare Turf Division.

Race 9 - Grade 2 Woody Stephens Handicap (7 Furlongs on Dirt)

This race was won by the fast closing Forty Tales who earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure for his effort. He got a dream pace scenario set up by the speedy Let 'Em Shine and Forty Tales Capitalized on that. 2nd place finisher Declan's Warrior closed well and it is important to note that he had to alter his course in mid stretch. I like his chances moving forward in the Sprint Division, especially if he can sit mid pack off fast fractions. 3rd Place finisher Clearly Now made a move on the turn after sitting right off the speed, but could not hang on for a better finish. Let 'Em Shine set the extremely fast pace and managed to hang on for 4th place beaten just 1 length. I would expect Let 'Em Shine to stick to 6 Furlongs and would love to see him and Fast Bullet tangle at some point.

Race 10 - Grade 1 Manhattan Handicap (1 1/4 Miles on Turf)

Point of Entry showed all his class on a surface he does not care for. Unfortunately, he suffered a condylar fracture which will keep him out of racing for the foreseeable future. His 104 Beyer number is marks his 5th straight race in which he earned a Beyer of 100+. Hopefully we see this guy back next year, if not late this year. Optimizer ran a solid race for 2nd after stalking the pace throughout. He has found a good home going long on the Turf and really appreciates the softer turf courses.

2013 Belmont Stakes Thoughts

2013 Belmont Stakes

This years Belmont Stakes lacks the Triple Crown fervor, but there are still headlines. There is the Orb vs. Oxbow showdown, Pletcher has five horses entered, and a Filly versus the Boys just to name a few. I will breakdown the entire race horse by horse. I am assessing these horses under the assumption there will be an off track.

#1 Frac Daddy (30-1) - He is entering off a 16th place finish in the Kentucky Derby five weeks ago. He leaves a lot to be desired as he appears to be a cut below the best horses. I think a mile and a half is farther than he wants to go and his latest workout does not instill confidence. On the positive side, he does have a 2nd place finish here and Alan Garcia rides. I do not see him being a factor here.

#2 Freedom Child (8-1) - He is the hot horse off his Peter Pan victory on May 11. He did win that race in impressive fashion by 13 1/2 lengths on a sloppy track. There is plenty of upside with him, but there are a few concerns. First, he will probably want the lead as both of his victories have been in gate to wire fashion. That is a problem with the likes of Oxbow who will also want the lead. Secondly, he is moving up in class and will need to improve further to be this years Belmont Winner. I will pass on him in the Win spot.

#3 Overanlayze (12-1) - Another horse coming into the Belmont off the Kentucky Derby race. He finished 11th that day after an even effort. While I would be quick to dismiss him, that even running style may work in his favor over 12 furlongs. He also gets the services of John Velazquez back and he won the Grade 2 Futurity at Belmont in September 2012. Hopefully this guy can be closer to the pace and will give him a small chance at the upset. I will use him underneath.

#4 Giant Finish (30-1) - He comes off a 10th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He has shown in two starts that he does not care for the off track. There are not a lot of positives in this corner and do not give him much of a chance on Saturday.

#5 Orb (3-1) - This years Triple Crown hopeful failed to live up to expectations in the Preakness three weeks ago, but is back for the Belmont. To be honest, I am shocked he is in the Belmont given Shug McGaughey's conservative nature with horses. Nevertheless, he must be respected as this is Orb's home track. He has no problem with a sloppy track and the distance should not be a problem. He deserves respect and is a must use on top.

#6 Incognito (20-1) - He too ran in the Peter Pan Stakes, but he failed to show much finishing 5th beaten 15 3/4 lengths. He does not appear to favor the off tracks and he is light on class and experience. I will pass on using this guy.

#7 Oxbow (5-1) - The upset winner of the Preakness is back for more in the Belmont. He certainly appreciates when he is given everything on the front end and no pressure. I do not believe he will get the same trip he got in the Preakness as #2 Freedom Child will be there all the way on the lead. At 5-1, I expect this guy to be over bet. I am tempted not to use him underneath, but he can hang on for 3rd or 4th.

#8 Midnight Taboo (30-1) - This guy has just 3 starts to his credit and only a maiden win. He is trained by Todd Pletcher so the connections think he must have enough talent to win here. He does have a good pedigree, so the distance should not be a problem. The lack of experience and class quality will make me pass on him and only use for 3rd and 4th.

#9 Revolutionary (9-2) - The 3rd place finisher from the Kentucky Derby gets Javier Castellano back in the saddle who accounts for two of his three wins. There is a lot to like about him, he fires every race, never missed the board in seven career starts, training well, and loves the off track. The main concern is his pedigree with War Pass as his sire, but to his credit he does have A.P. Indy as the dam-sire. Must use in the win spot.

#10 Will Take Charge (20-1) - He has clearly shown he is not on the same level as the top 3 Year olds. In addition, he does not care for an off track as noted by his Derby and Southwest performances. He does have a pedigree that favors a mile and a half. If the track comes up fast on Saturday, I will use him underneath, otherwise I will pass on him altogether.

#11 Vyjack (20-1) - He was compromised by being too close to the pace in the Kentucky Derby. He knows Belmont as he trains here for part of the year and he does not mind the off track as noted by his 2nd career race in which he won by 5 3/4 lengths. He is an intriguing horse from a longshot perspective, but I will only use him underneath.

#12 Palace Malice (12-1) - Another Pletcher runner who shocked a lot of people by setting the fast pace in the Derby. With the Blinkers off, I expect him to sit off the pace and he has experience over the Belmont track (2nd in his career debut). He also has the pedigree to stay for 12 furlongs being out of Curlin and a Royal Anthem mare. I will use on top and underneath.

#13 Unlimited Budget (8-1) - The lone Filly and yet another trained by Todd Pletcher. She comes in off her 3rd place finish in the Kentucky Oaks and has been training exceptionally well over the Belmont surface. My concern is she had the perfect trip in the Oaks and had still only finished 3rd. Another concern is she will be probably not be close to 8-1 as she will be ridden by Rosie Napravnik and trained by Todd Pletcher who trained the last Filly to win the Belmont. Must use underneath for me.

#14 Golden Soul (10-1) - The surprise 2nd place finisher of the Kentucky Derby will have a lot more backers today. It is difficult for me to tell whether that race was a fluke or possibly a sign of things to come. He obviously loves the off track and the added distance only helps his cause. If he can rate closer to the pace he has a chance to win, but he is a must use underneath.

Here is my breakdown:

On Top: 5, 9, 12, 14
Underneath: 2, 3, 7, 8, 11, 13
Tosses: 1, 4, 6, 10

I personally feel the best betting value in the Belmont is #9 Revolutionary and #12 Palace Malice. Best of luck to those wager on the Belmont Stakes.

Belmont Stakes Eve Thoughts

Belmont Thoughts for Friday, June 7, 2013

There are only 2 stakes races on the Belmont Eve card, the Grade 3 Jaipur and the Grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap. As of this writing it is showing that rain will be present on Friday. Here is the breakdown of the two graded stakes races:

Race 9 (5:11 PM ET) - Grade 3 Jaipur Stakes for 3 YO+ (7 Furlongs on the Turf)

I believe this race will stay on the Turf. In the event it does not, this race will be run at 7 Furlongs on the Dirt. The more I look at this race, the more I come back to #1 Mr. Commons (9-5). He is getting major class relief after losing to reigning Horse of the Year Wise Dan. He has the perfect running style to sit behind the speed and run past them in the stretch. He offers little in the way of value at 9-5 on the morning line. #3 Night Officer (12-1) is an intriguing long shot. He makes his third start off a five month layoff and his first two starts this year have been good with a win and a second. In addition, he gets Joel Rosario to ride and is 2 for 2 on the Belmont Turf course. #6 Summer Breezing (6-1) is another horse to consider. He loves this distance (2 for 2) and has a win over the belmont turf course. My concern is he likes to be on the lead and there appears to be an abundance of speed. #2 Beau Choix (9-2) will be closing late and also owns a win over this distance.

If this race should be taken off the turn, the main contenders are the three Main Track Only entrants #10 Politcallycorrect (6-1), #11 Reload (3-1), and #12 Souper Speedy (2-1). The latter two will be tough to beat in the off going.

Race 10 (5:45 ET) - Grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap for 3 YO+ (1 1/2 Miles on the Dirt)

#1 Birdrun (12-1) is my longshot pick to win this edition of the Brooklyn Handicap. He won this race in 2011 in gate to wire fashion and I am hoping he does the same this year. There is the concern that his form has tailed off since his nearly 60 length loss in the 2012 Brooklyn Handicap and his lackluster race in May. #3 Quick Casablanca (CHI) (4-1) is making his second start off a year long break and he should move forward. He was only beaten by 2 1/2 lengths in his first start this year on the turf and the distance is not a problem. #8 Ruler On Ice (8-1) is the winner of the 2011 Belmont Stakes run at the same distance of the Brooklyn. He should sit right behind the leaders and he has no problem handling the off track (6 starts, 2 wins, 2 seconds). #2 Keep Me Informed (20-1) is worthy of a long look in the exotics. This guy has 7 starts on a wet track with 3 wins and 4 third place finishes. In addition, he loves Belmont (7 starts, 2 wins, 1 second, 3 thirds). The main concern is he does not appear to be on the same class level as the others in here, but at 20-1 (and maybe higher at post time) he has a chance. Being out of A.P. Indy, his pedigree suggests the 1 1/2 mile trip should not be a problem.

Good luck to those who play Belmont on Friday. I will have the complete Belmont Stakes breakdown within the next day.

Why Don't I Watch the NHL More Often?

Why don't I watch the NHL more often?

As I watch Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals between the Los Angeles Kings and San Jose Sharks, I am wondering why I do not follow the NHL more closely. I find hockey far more entertaining than basketball and certainly more so than baseball. What is the problem then?

For starters, the NHL usually kicks off in October right in the midst of the Football season (no pun intended). Given my preference of football over hockey, it is difficult for me to follow Professional and Collegiate football, and including hockey into that mix would be hectic. It is also important to consider that it is easier to follow 30 teams in football for 17 weeks when games are played only three days a week. Compare that to 30 teams in hockey who play for six and a half months and there are usually multiple games per night.

Another reason is the playoff factor. The playoffs bring a lot more intensity than the regular season, and this is true of all sports, not just hockey. Each hit and each goal mean more in the Playoffs than any other time. That intensity draws me to the NHL Playoffs. Part of the issue here is the length of the season. 82 games allows for a much higher margin of error than the NFL or College Football which is why I follow those more closely. The margin of error in the NHL does not allow for the same intensity of football.

Of course, there are other reasons such as time constraints, obligations, and sometimes life just happens. None of this is to say that hockey is not exciting or intense. In my opinion, hockey towers over basketball, baseball, and most other sports in terms of excitement and entertainment. Hockey players are arguably the best conditioned athletes (read: better product). I prefer the NHL over the NBA and MLB, but it does not compare to football for me. When the 2013-14 NHL season starts, I will certainly keep an open mind and an eye on the sport.

2013 Preakness Thoughts

Preakness Recap and Thoughts

Let's start with the big race of the day, the Preakness Stakes. Oxbow pulled the upset, with Itsmyluckyday, Mylute, and Orb finishing 2nd, 3rd, and 4th respectively.

- Oxbow, ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens, showed he was the best horse on this day. Trained by another Hall of Fame member, D. Wayne Lukas, Oxbow went to the lead and never looked back. Out of Awesome Again (Breeders' Cup Classic Winner) and Cee's Tizzy (Sire of two time Breeders' Cup Classic Winner Tiznow), Oxbow should relish the longer distances.

- Itsmyluckyday ran much improved today, which leads to the conclusion that the off track really affected his chances in the Kentucky Derby. He really showed the potential to be a serious horse later in the year with his ability to rate off the pace.

- Third place finisher Mylute continues to outrun his pedigree. Out of two time Breeders' Cup Sprint Winner Midnight Lute, he lugged far behind the pace and came on strong at the end. I am not convinced he will like the longer distances, but as long as he continues to race like he has during this Triple Crown, I have to respect him and his chances.

- Orb really had no excuses with his 4th place finish as he did not have his usual late kick. Perhaps there was not enough speed for him or he did not like the track/being on the rail. In any case, he was not the best horse today. As long as he is healthy, he should be a major player throughout the remainder of the year.

- Goldencents (5th) continues to give the impression of a need the lead type as he has not been dangerous in the last two races. I would love to see this guy as a 7 furlong sprinter or a miler.

- Departing (6th) made a solid middle move before tiring but was never really a threat. He has tons of potential and I would expect him to be a force later in the year with more experience.

- Will Take Charge (7th) did not fire at all today, nor did he in the Kentucky Derby. He has the pedigree to like the longer races, but he does not have the form.

- Govenor Charlie (8th) broke poorly and subsequently raced poorly. He missed the Derby due to foot issues which I believe played a factor in today's showing. Look for him to show up in the California races later in the year.

- Titletown Five (9th) is owned by Paul Hornung, but this horse was always outclassed in this race. He is need of a step down or two to be competitive.

The Preakness Stakes results chart can be found here (via Equibase)

I want to mention that I found the buzz around Orb to be particularly absurd this year. I heard numerous times that Orb would be the next Triple Crown winner and he was better than several other Triple Crown misses like Smarty Jones. It is not uncommon to hear about a Triple Crown possibility, but it almost always starts after the conclusion of the Preakness. The hype machine was in full force immediately following the conclusion of the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago. It almost felt like there was an air of "destiny" as the Phipps finally got a Kentucky Derby winner and the highly respected Shug McGaughey got a chance to showcase his old school nature. The problem with the hype is that none of the aforementioned points matter and no sport goes from the highs to the lows like horse racing. 

Preakness Undercard Thoughts

Race 8 (Grade 3 DuPont Distaff) was a solid field despite only five horses running. Summer Applause got back to her winning ways as she sat right off the pace before taking the lead in the stretch and drawing off. Runner up Sea Island showed she can run on just about any track or surface. She looked like she was going to go by the eventual winner Summer Applause, but she could not out kick her. Brushed By a Star finished 3rd after sitting in last until the stretch. It was a decent performance given that the pace was very slow (1:15.70 for 6 furlongs). Results chart (via Equibase).

Race 9 (Grade 3 Gallorette Handicap) was a very good performance by Pianist. She went gate to wire under fast fractions and never looked threatened. Samitar (4th) and Old Tune (5th) had perfect spots during the race, but had no kick in the stretch. Very disappointing race from those two. Results chart (via Equibase).

Race 10 (Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap) showcased a great race by Sage Valley. He was able to sit off the pace and draw off for a 2 1/4 length win. Keep in mind this was his first start since November 9, 2012. 2nd place finisher Hardened Wildcat came from way back in a good effort by him. Results chart (via Equibase).

Race 11 (Grade 2 Dixie) was a bit of foreshadowing with Skyring, trained by D. Wayne Lukas, going gate to wire under Gary Stevens. As previously mentioned, Stevens would do the same thing one race later with Oxbow. Skyring has now won two years in a row on the Preakness undercard, both done in the gate to wire fashion on the Pimlico turf course. Wilcox Inn sat midpack about five lengths off the pace and made a nice run in the stretch. He was getting to Skyring, but he could not get up in time. Optimizer had the perfect trip right behind the leaders and save ground throughout. He was out-kicked by Wilcox Inn in the final furlong and finished 3rd. Results chart (via Equibase).

The entire Preakness Day results charts can be found here, via Equibase.

Unfortunately, with Orb's loss, the Triple Crown remains vacated for the 35th year in a row. I would expect a full field for the Belmont Stakes in three weeks' time and that should make for a good wagering event.

2013 Preakness Day

2013 Preakness Day Betting Selections

First let me start by saying that I believe this is a tremendous betting card. I personally see value in every race even if favorites win. As most know, Orb is going for the second jewel in the Triple Crown after winning the Kentucky Derby on May 4. There is the possibility of rain in Baltimore on Saturday. Here is the breakdown of the Preakness day card:

Race 1 (10:45 AM ET) - Optional Claimer $25K NW 2X for 3 YO+ (1 1/16 Miles on Dirt)

            A solid Optional Claiming event to start the day. #5 Benny Or Local (7-2) should be in a good spot and he is in excellent form with two straight wins (both at Pimlico). #9 Bake Shop (5-1) has been excellent since his layoff. He too is a winner of two in a row and he has shown the ability to rate his speed. #6 Hakama (7-2) also has a solid chance. The horse he lost to in his last race (Indian Dance) finished 4^th in the Grade 3 Pimlico Special.

Bets

Exacta: 5-6-9 with 1-4-5-6-7-9

Daily Double: 5-6-9 with 5-7

Race 2 (11:18 AM ET) - Maryland Bred Stakes for 3 YO+ (1 1/16 Miles on Dirt)

            I think the 7-5 favorite, #9 Hello Lover, is vulnerable here. #5 Who Dat Boy (7-2) attracts the services of Rosie Napravnik and is in good form with 2 wins and a second in his last three starts. #7 No Brakes (5-1) should be able to come from off the pace late. His trainer is 17% 1^st time off the claim. The aforementioned #9 Hello Lover (7-5) deserves consideration based upon the 12 for 31 lifetime record. My concern is the trainer is 0 for 15 when coming off a 61-180 day layoff.

Bets

None

Race 3 (11:53 AM ET) - Allowance NW 1X for 3 YO+ (5 Furlongs on Turf)

            The always entertaining 5 furlong turf sprint is ultra competitive in this rendition. I’m going to take a big price here in #11 Star Maneuver (30-1). This guys best races come sprinting on the turf (3 starts, 1 Win, 1 second) and he should get a lively pace up front. 30-1 is just too high for me to ignore on this one. #5 Bowman’s Boy (9-2) won at Pimlico going 5 furlongs on turf in his last race. He should get a great trip just behind the leaders. If #6 Inflamed Spirit (5-1) can run back to his turf sprint at Santa Anita, he is strictly the one to beat. Has a huge chance if he rates off the leaders.

Bets

Exacta: 5-6-7-11 with 3-5-6-7-9-11-12-13

Win-Place-Show on #11

Race 4 (12:30 PM ET) - Stakes Race for 2 YO (5 Furlongs on Dirt)

            #6 Sweet Emma Rose (7-5) absolutely crushed the field in her first start. She is trained by the always dangerous Wesley Ward who is very good with 2 year olds. #5 Silvertoungedtommy (8-1) broke his maiden here at Pimlico. I’m not sure he has enough speed to beat the #4 and #6 to the lead. If he can get a hot pace and he can rate off the speed, he has a solid chance. #4 No Nay Never (5-2) is also trained by Wesley Ward. He has enough speed to clear the field, but Rosario chose #6 over him.

Bets

None

Race 5 (1:09 PM ET) - Allowance NW 1X for 3 YO+ F&M (1 1/16 Miles on Turf)

            #2 Hold Our Destiny (8-1) should move forward in her 2^nd start off the layoff. She ran 3^rd by half a length in her previous start and should be in prime position just behind the leaders. Big chance, but I am not sure if she will be anywhere close to 8-1. #7 Joy (6-1) ran evenly in her previous start, but that was her first route race on turf. She has the right to improve, especially since Graham Motion trains her. #5 High Moral Ground (8-1) is an interesting horse here. She likes this distance on the turf (4 starts, 2 wins and 2 seconds), but is a deep closer and may not get the speed she needs to win. I still respect her chances.

Bets

Exacta: 2-5-7 with 2-3-5-6-7-9-11-12-14

Win-Place-Show on #2 if 4-1 or better

Race 6 (1:50 PM ET) - Chick Lang Stakes for 3 YO (6 Furlongs on Dirt)

            #7 City of Weston (6-1) rates a good chance in this race. I see this guy sitting behind a hot pace and pouncing on the leaders in the stretch. This guy has won 3 in a row at three different tracks. #3 Bobcat Jim (6-1) will be on the lead and will be tough to dispatch. His last two races have been very good and he improved both times. He will have company on the lead, but he has shown the ability to win speed duels. #2 Zee Bros (2-1) trained by the legendary Bob Baffert is another one in here who will show speed. Not sure how he will handle the speed duel, but has a good chance given his connections. #9 Undrafted (3-1) will have the perfect trip off the leaders.

Bets

Win-Place-Show on #7

Exacta: 7 with 2-3-4-8-9

Exacta: 2-3-4-8-9 with 7

Race 7 (2:33 PM ET) – James Murphy Stakes for 3 YO (1 Mile on Turf)

            #11 English Minister (10-1) is another longshot selection for me. He closed like a freight train in his last race in his first start in 5 1/2 months. His only turf route was a comfortable win and he has the pedigree to improve. #4 Heat Press (6-1) should move forward off his last race. Graham Motion trains and he is solid with his turf starters. This guy has never raced on turf, but his sire (Malibu Moon) is 10% with First Time Turf starters. #9 China Holiday (8-1) ran very well in a Florida Bred Stakes race. He should get a great spot in the race behind the leaders. #1 Notacatbutallama (9-5) is the class of this field, but is coming off a 4+ month layoff. She loves turf and I respect Todd Pletcher with horses off a layoff (he hits with 25% of his layoff starters).

Bets

Win-Place-Show #11

Pick 3 1-4-9-11 with 3-5-6-7 with 3-4-5-6-10

Race 8 (3:14 PM ET) – Grade 3 DuPont Distaff for 3 YO+ F&M (1 1/16 Miles on Dirt)

            #3 Moon Philly (7-2) may get the lead by default as this race is devoid of any true speed horse. She has not raced since late February but she is training great and loves this distance (4 starts, 2 wins, 2 seconds). She should be a nice price given the presence of the 2 favorites. #6 Summer Applause (9-5) is a very versatile filly which is good given the lack of pace. She comes in off a fourth place finish in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom where she had little excuse. This field is easier and she should have a better showing. #7 Brushed by a Star (2-1) is a consistent filly who will have a perfect trip in this race. #5 Sea Island (6-1) is a value play. She is making her second start off a 4 1/2 month layoff and is trained by Shug McGaughey (who trains Orb). She will run her race and will be coming off the pace.

Bets

Win-Place-Show on #3

Exacta 3-5 with 3-5-6-7

Race 9 (4:00 PM ET) – Grade 3 Gallorette for 3 YO+ F&M (1 1/16 Miles on Turf)

            #10 Appealing Cat (10-1) should get a great trip right off the speed with Edgar Prado aboard in a race that does not have a lot of speed. #6 Embarr (8-1) is an interesting horse in here. She loves the Pimlico turf course (3 wins from 3 starts) and she is making her second start off a 5 1/2 month layoff. She should get a perfect trip, but I would be shocked if she was close to 8-1. #5 Old Tune (BRZ) (4-1) will probably go to the lead in here. She gets the world’s hottest jockey in Joel Rosario and in her last race was uncharacteristically far back. #3 Pianist (4-1) and #4 Samitar (GB) (5-2) both deserve long looks as they are trained by Chad Brown.

Bets

Exacta: 6-10 with All

Exacta: All with 6-10

Race 10 (4:42 PM ET) – Grade 3 Maryland Sprint for 3 YO+ (6 Furlongs on Dirt)

            Another great race and I will go with #2 Broad Rule (15-1). He should get a hot pace to run at and should be in the perfect spot to rally. He likes Pimlico (2 wins and 1 second from 3 starts) and his trainer is 3 for 12 with three more seconds to start the meet. #4 Hardened Wildcat (4-1) is making his second start off the layoff and will have a great trip here. #10 Sage Valley (5-2) is the fastest horse in here and that could spell trouble for this field. He has not started since November 2012, but his trainer is 29% off a layoff of 180 days or longer. Will have a big say in this race.

Bets

Win-Place-Show #2

Exacta box: 1-2-4-7-10

Race 11 (6:20 PM ET) – Grade 2 Dixie for 3 YO+ (1 1/8 Miles on Turf)

            Another race with many ways to go. #4 Imagining (5-1) is coming into this race off a 3 1/2 length score which was his first start in 9 months. Being trained by Shug McGaughey adds to the appeal and he will be very tough in here. #1 Wilcox Inn (6-1) should save all the ground from the rail and be pretty close to the leaders at the top of the stretch. #9 Swift Warrior (4-1) will be making his first start in 3 months. He is a versatile horse who can go to lead or sit off the pace and that makes him dangerous here.

Bets

Exacta: 1-4-9 with 1-2-4-5-7-9-10 ($18 per unit)

Daily Double: 1-4-9 with 1-4-5-6-7-9 ($18 per unit)

Race 12 (5:25 PM ET) – Grade 1 Preakness for 3 YO (1 3/16 Miles on Dirt)

            #1 Orb (1-1) is clearly the one to beat. He really does not have many checks against him outside of the rail draw, but that even helps him save ground throughout. #9 Itsmyluckyday (10-1) was my top pick for the Kentucky Derby. He really did not have any excuses last time as and was not a match for Orb in the Florida Derby. Nice value play IF (and that is a big IF) Orb fails to deliver and he runs well. #4 Departing (6-1) is 4 for 5 lifetime and should get an ideal pace ahead of him. He will make one run and will have to out-kick Orb late if he wants the Preakness glory.

Bets

Exacta: 1 with 4-6-7-9

Win-Place-Show #9

Trifecta: 4 with 1-6-7-9 with All

Trifecta: 1-6-7-9 with 4 with All

Trifecta: 1-6-7-9 with All with 4

Race 13 (7:08 PM ET) – Allowance NW 1X for 3 YO+ (1 1/16 Miles on Dirt)

            #1 Bluegrass Springs (10-1) should get to the lead from the rail. He ran very well in his last race in March going gate to wire. I do not believe he will be near his 10-1 morning line price. #3 Ethelred (10-1) stands a solid chance. He can go to the lead or he can stalk the pace. #8 Code West (4-5) will be heavily bet from the barn of Bob Baffert. I will play against him after his last race in which he was beat as the heavy favorite.

Bets

Exacta: 1-3 with 1-2-3-8-10-11-12

Exacta: 1-2-3-8-10-11-12 with 1-3

Win-Place-Show #3

Good luck to all on Preakness Day