2013 Preakness Day Betting Selections
First let me start by saying that I believe this is a tremendous betting
card. I personally see value in every race even if favorites win. As most know,
Orb is going for the second jewel in the Triple Crown after winning the Kentucky
Derby on May 4. There is the possibility of rain in Baltimore on Saturday. Here is the breakdown of the Preakness day card:
Race 1 (10:45 AM ET) - Optional Claimer $25K NW 2X for 3 YO+ (1 1/16 Miles on Dirt)
A solid Optional Claiming event to
start the day. #5 Benny Or Local (7-2)
should be in a good spot and he is in excellent form with two straight wins
(both at Pimlico). #9 Bake Shop (5-1)
has been excellent since his layoff. He too is a winner of two
in a row and he has shown the ability to rate his speed. #6 Hakama (7-2) also has a solid chance. The horse he lost to in
his last race (Indian Dance) finished 4th in the Grade 3 Pimlico
Special.
Bets
Exacta:
5-6-9 with 1-4-5-6-7-9
Daily
Double: 5-6-9 with 5-7
Race 2 (11:18 AM ET) - Maryland Bred Stakes for 3 YO+ (1 1/16 Miles on Dirt)
I think the 7-5 favorite, #9 Hello Lover, is vulnerable here. #5 Who Dat Boy (7-2) attracts the
services of Rosie Napravnik and is in good form with 2 wins and a second in his
last three starts. #7 No Brakes (5-1)
should be able to come from off the pace late. His trainer is 17% 1st
time off the claim. The aforementioned #9
Hello Lover (7-5) deserves consideration based upon the 12 for 31 lifetime
record. My concern is the trainer is 0 for 15 when coming off a 61-180 day
layoff.
Bets
None
Race 3 (11:53 AM ET) - Allowance NW 1X for 3 YO+ (5 Furlongs on Turf)
The always entertaining 5 furlong
turf sprint is ultra competitive in this rendition. I’m going to take
a big price here in #11 Star Maneuver
(30-1). This guys best races come sprinting on the turf (3 starts, 1 Win, 1
second) and he should get a lively pace up front. 30-1 is just too high for me
to ignore on this one. #5 Bowman’s Boy
(9-2) won at Pimlico going 5 furlongs on turf in his last race. He should
get a great trip just behind the leaders. If #6 Inflamed Spirit (5-1) can run back to his turf sprint at Santa
Anita, he is strictly the one to beat. Has a huge chance if he rates off the
leaders.
Bets
Exacta:
5-6-7-11 with 3-5-6-7-9-11-12-13
Win-Place-Show on #11
Race 4 (12:30 PM ET) - Stakes Race for 2 YO (5 Furlongs on Dirt)
#6
Sweet Emma Rose (7-5) absolutely crushed the field in her first start. She
is trained by the always dangerous Wesley Ward who is very good with 2 year
olds. #5
Silvertoungedtommy (8-1) broke his maiden here at Pimlico. I’m not sure he
has enough speed to beat the #4 and #6 to the lead. If he can get a hot pace
and he can rate off the speed, he has a solid chance. #4 No Nay Never (5-2) is also trained by Wesley Ward. He has enough
speed to clear the field, but Rosario chose #6 over him.
Bets
None
Race 5 (1:09 PM ET) - Allowance NW 1X for 3 YO+ F&M (1 1/16 Miles on Turf)
#2
Hold Our Destiny (8-1) should move forward in her 2nd start off
the layoff. She ran 3rd by half a length in her previous start and
should be in prime position just behind the leaders. Big chance, but I am not
sure if she will be anywhere close to 8-1. #7
Joy (6-1) ran evenly in her previous start, but that was her first route
race on turf. She has the right to improve, especially since Graham Motion
trains her. #5 High Moral Ground (8-1)
is an interesting horse here. She likes this distance on the turf (4 starts, 2
wins and 2 seconds), but is a deep closer and may not get the speed she needs
to win. I still respect her chances.
Bets
Exacta:
2-5-7 with 2-3-5-6-7-9-11-12-14
Win-Place-Show
on #2 if 4-1 or better
Race 6 (1:50
PM ET) - Chick Lang Stakes for 3 YO (6 Furlongs on Dirt)
#7
City of Weston (6-1) rates a good chance in this race. I see this guy
sitting behind a hot pace and pouncing on the leaders in the stretch. This guy
has won 3 in a row at three different tracks. #3 Bobcat Jim (6-1) will be on the lead and will be tough to
dispatch. His last two races have been very good and he improved both times. He
will have company on the lead, but he has shown the ability to win speed duels.
#2 Zee Bros (2-1) trained by the
legendary Bob Baffert is another one in here who will show speed. Not sure how
he will handle the speed duel, but has a good chance given his connections. #9 Undrafted (3-1) will have the
perfect trip off the leaders.
Bets
Win-Place-Show on #7
Exacta:
7 with 2-3-4-8-9
Exacta:
2-3-4-8-9 with 7
Race 7 (2:33
PM ET) – James Murphy Stakes for 3 YO (1 Mile on Turf)
#11
English Minister (10-1) is another longshot selection for me. He closed
like a freight train in his last race in his first start in 5 1/2 months. His
only turf route was a comfortable win and he has the pedigree to improve. #4 Heat Press (6-1) should move forward
off his last race. Graham Motion trains and he is solid with his turf starters.
This guy has never raced on turf, but his sire (Malibu Moon) is 10% with First
Time Turf starters. #9 China Holiday
(8-1) ran very well in a Florida Bred Stakes race. He should get a great
spot in the race behind the leaders. #1
Notacatbutallama (9-5) is the class of this field, but is coming off a 4+
month layoff. She loves turf and I respect Todd Pletcher with horses off a
layoff (he hits with 25% of his layoff starters).
Bets
Win-Place-Show #11
Pick 3 1-4-9-11 with 3-5-6-7 with 3-4-5-6-10
Race 8 (3:14
PM ET) – Grade 3 DuPont Distaff for 3 YO+ F&M (1 1/16 Miles on Dirt)
#3
Moon Philly (7-2) may get the lead by default as this race is devoid of any
true speed horse. She has not raced since late February but she is training
great and loves this distance (4 starts, 2 wins, 2 seconds). She should be a
nice price given the presence of the 2 favorites. #6 Summer Applause (9-5) is a very versatile filly which is good
given the lack of pace. She comes in off a fourth place finish in the Grade 1
Apple Blossom where she had little excuse. This field is easier and she should
have a better showing. #7 Brushed by a
Star (2-1) is a consistent filly who will have a perfect trip in this race.
#5 Sea Island (6-1) is a value play.
She is making her second start off a 4 1/2 month layoff and is trained by Shug
McGaughey (who trains Orb). She will run her race and will be coming off the
pace.
Bets
Win-Place-Show on #3
Exacta
3-5 with 3-5-6-7
Race 9 (4:00
PM ET) – Grade 3 Gallorette for 3 YO+ F&M (1 1/16 Miles on Turf)
#10
Appealing Cat (10-1) should get a great trip right off the speed with Edgar
Prado aboard in a race that does not have a lot of speed. #6 Embarr (8-1) is an interesting horse in here. She loves the
Pimlico turf course (3 wins from 3 starts) and she is making her second start
off a 5 1/2 month layoff. She should get a perfect trip, but I would be shocked
if she was close to 8-1. #5 Old Tune
(BRZ) (4-1) will probably go to the lead in here. She gets the world’s
hottest jockey in Joel Rosario and in her last race was uncharacteristically far
back. #3
Pianist (4-1) and #4 Samitar (GB) (5-2) both deserve long looks as they are
trained by Chad Brown.
Bets
Exacta: 6-10 with All
Exacta: All with 6-10
Race 10
(4:42 PM ET) – Grade 3 Maryland Sprint for 3 YO+ (6 Furlongs on Dirt)
Another great race and I will go
with #2 Broad Rule (15-1). He should
get a hot pace to run at and should be in the perfect spot to rally. He likes
Pimlico (2 wins and 1 second from 3 starts) and his trainer is 3 for 12 with three more seconds to
start the meet. #4 Hardened Wildcat
(4-1) is making his second start off the layoff and will have a great trip
here. #10 Sage Valley (5-2) is the
fastest horse in here and that could spell trouble for this field. He has not
started since November 2012, but his trainer is 29% off a layoff of 180 days or
longer. Will have a big say in this race.
Bets
Win-Place-Show #2
Exacta
box: 1-2-4-7-10
Race 11
(6:20 PM ET) – Grade 2 Dixie for 3 YO+ (1 1/8 Miles on Turf)
Another race with many ways to go. #4 Imagining (5-1) is coming into this
race off a 3 1/2 length score which was his first start in 9 months. Being
trained by Shug McGaughey adds to the appeal and he will be very tough in here.
#1 Wilcox Inn (6-1) should save all
the ground from the rail and be pretty close to the leaders at the top of the
stretch. #9 Swift Warrior (4-1) will
be making his first start in 3 months. He is a versatile horse who can go to
lead or sit off the pace and that makes him dangerous here.
Bets
Exacta:
1-4-9 with 1-2-4-5-7-9-10 ($18 per unit)
Daily
Double: 1-4-9 with 1-4-5-6-7-9 ($18 per unit)
Race 12 (5:25
PM ET) – Grade 1 Preakness for 3 YO (1 3/16 Miles on Dirt)
#1
Orb (1-1) is clearly the one to beat. He really does not have many checks
against him outside of the rail draw, but that even helps him save ground throughout. #9 Itsmyluckyday (10-1) was my top pick
for the Kentucky Derby. He really did not have any excuses last time as and was
not a match for Orb in the Florida Derby. Nice value play IF (and that is a
big IF)
Orb fails to deliver and he runs well. #4 Departing (6-1)
is 4 for 5 lifetime and should get an ideal pace ahead of him. He will make one
run and will have to out-kick Orb late if he wants the Preakness glory.
Bets
Exacta: 1 with 4-6-7-9
Win-Place-Show #9
Trifecta: 4 with 1-6-7-9 with All
Trifecta: 1-6-7-9 with 4 with All
Trifecta: 1-6-7-9 with All with 4
Race 13
(7:08 PM ET) – Allowance NW 1X for 3 YO+ (1 1/16 Miles on Dirt)
#1
Bluegrass Springs (10-1) should get to the lead from the rail. He ran very
well in his last race in March going gate to wire. I do not believe he will be
near his 10-1 morning line price. #3
Ethelred (10-1) stands a solid chance. He can go to the lead or he can stalk
the pace. #8 Code West (4-5) will be
heavily bet from the barn of Bob Baffert. I will play against him after his last race in which he was beat as the heavy favorite.
Bets
Exacta: 1-3 with 1-2-3-8-10-11-12
Exacta: 1-2-3-8-10-11-12 with 1-3
Win-Place-Show
#3
Good luck to all on Preakness Day
