2013 Belmont Stakes Day Recap

Belmont Stakes Recap

Palace Malice deserves credit for his effort. He ran up close to a quick pace and still had enough left to hang on for the victory. Oxbow also deserves credit for his effort in the Belmont. He pressed the pace throughout and hung on for 2nd after racing in the previous two Triple Crown Races. Despite finishing 3rd, Orb has to be considered a disappointment. He was at his home track, had a perfect pace scenario, but only had enough to finish 3rd. The fact that he could not beat horses near the lead in Palace Malice and Oxbow is not a good sign. Orb has shown he is a one run closer. The same applies to Revolutionary who finished 5th in the Belmont. With a 13th Place finish in the Belmont, Freedom Child showed he was the beneficiary of Speed biased track in his Peter Pan victory. I also wonder whether he is a need the lead type which is how he won his 2 races.

The jury is still out about how good the 3 year old crop is. It does not look very good at this point after seeing the 3 year olds beat up on each other in the Triple Crown. In fairness, we have not seen the top 3 year olds face older horses yet and there is still 5 months to the Breeders Cup Classic. At this point I am hopeful, but not optimistic the next 5 months will produce a 3 year old that will be competitive with older horses.

Undercard Thoughts

Race 6 - Easy Goer Stakes (1 1/16 Miles on Dirt)

This race was all about #2 Power Broker who received a 99 Beyer Speed Figure for his win. He set solid fractions en route to a gate to wire victory. Based upon his races, he has shown an affinity for 8.5 Furlong (1 1/16 Miles) races and that could lead him to being a factor in the Dirt Mile division.

Race 7 - Grade 2 True North Handicap (6 Furlongs on Dirt)

The ultra-talented, yet extremely fragile Fast Bullet gave a very good performance. Keep in mind, this guy was making his first start in 6 months and he did not look tired one bit during the final sixteenth of a mile. He earned a BSF of 110 which gives him three Beyer numbers of 100 or greater in just five career starts. As long as Fast Bullet is healthy I would expect him to have a BIG say in the Breeders Cup Sprint at Santa Anita in November. 

Race 8 - Grade 1 Just A Game Stakes (1 Mile on Turf)

It is more than safe to say that Stephanie's Kitten likes a turf course with moisture in it. She is now 4 for 4 lifetime when the Turf is not listed as firm. Coincidentally, all 4 of those wins came at a distance of 1 Mile. She earned a Beyer number of 101 for this race and she is really developing into a nice filly. I would expect to hear from her down the road to the Breeders Cup. Noteworthy is the runner up, Better Lucky, who had a position throughout the race but was unable to get the beter of Stephanie's Kitten. Better Lucky certainly has the talent and ability to be competitive in the Filly & Mare Turf Division.

Race 9 - Grade 2 Woody Stephens Handicap (7 Furlongs on Dirt)

This race was won by the fast closing Forty Tales who earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure for his effort. He got a dream pace scenario set up by the speedy Let 'Em Shine and Forty Tales Capitalized on that. 2nd place finisher Declan's Warrior closed well and it is important to note that he had to alter his course in mid stretch. I like his chances moving forward in the Sprint Division, especially if he can sit mid pack off fast fractions. 3rd Place finisher Clearly Now made a move on the turn after sitting right off the speed, but could not hang on for a better finish. Let 'Em Shine set the extremely fast pace and managed to hang on for 4th place beaten just 1 length. I would expect Let 'Em Shine to stick to 6 Furlongs and would love to see him and Fast Bullet tangle at some point.

Race 10 - Grade 1 Manhattan Handicap (1 1/4 Miles on Turf)

Point of Entry showed all his class on a surface he does not care for. Unfortunately, he suffered a condylar fracture which will keep him out of racing for the foreseeable future. His 104 Beyer number is marks his 5th straight race in which he earned a Beyer of 100+. Hopefully we see this guy back next year, if not late this year. Optimizer ran a solid race for 2nd after stalking the pace throughout. He has found a good home going long on the Turf and really appreciates the softer turf courses.

2013 Belmont Stakes Thoughts

2013 Belmont Stakes

This years Belmont Stakes lacks the Triple Crown fervor, but there are still headlines. There is the Orb vs. Oxbow showdown, Pletcher has five horses entered, and a Filly versus the Boys just to name a few. I will breakdown the entire race horse by horse. I am assessing these horses under the assumption there will be an off track.

#1 Frac Daddy (30-1) - He is entering off a 16th place finish in the Kentucky Derby five weeks ago. He leaves a lot to be desired as he appears to be a cut below the best horses. I think a mile and a half is farther than he wants to go and his latest workout does not instill confidence. On the positive side, he does have a 2nd place finish here and Alan Garcia rides. I do not see him being a factor here.

#2 Freedom Child (8-1) - He is the hot horse off his Peter Pan victory on May 11. He did win that race in impressive fashion by 13 1/2 lengths on a sloppy track. There is plenty of upside with him, but there are a few concerns. First, he will probably want the lead as both of his victories have been in gate to wire fashion. That is a problem with the likes of Oxbow who will also want the lead. Secondly, he is moving up in class and will need to improve further to be this years Belmont Winner. I will pass on him in the Win spot.

#3 Overanlayze (12-1) - Another horse coming into the Belmont off the Kentucky Derby race. He finished 11th that day after an even effort. While I would be quick to dismiss him, that even running style may work in his favor over 12 furlongs. He also gets the services of John Velazquez back and he won the Grade 2 Futurity at Belmont in September 2012. Hopefully this guy can be closer to the pace and will give him a small chance at the upset. I will use him underneath.

#4 Giant Finish (30-1) - He comes off a 10th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He has shown in two starts that he does not care for the off track. There are not a lot of positives in this corner and do not give him much of a chance on Saturday.

#5 Orb (3-1) - This years Triple Crown hopeful failed to live up to expectations in the Preakness three weeks ago, but is back for the Belmont. To be honest, I am shocked he is in the Belmont given Shug McGaughey's conservative nature with horses. Nevertheless, he must be respected as this is Orb's home track. He has no problem with a sloppy track and the distance should not be a problem. He deserves respect and is a must use on top.

#6 Incognito (20-1) - He too ran in the Peter Pan Stakes, but he failed to show much finishing 5th beaten 15 3/4 lengths. He does not appear to favor the off tracks and he is light on class and experience. I will pass on using this guy.

#7 Oxbow (5-1) - The upset winner of the Preakness is back for more in the Belmont. He certainly appreciates when he is given everything on the front end and no pressure. I do not believe he will get the same trip he got in the Preakness as #2 Freedom Child will be there all the way on the lead. At 5-1, I expect this guy to be over bet. I am tempted not to use him underneath, but he can hang on for 3rd or 4th.

#8 Midnight Taboo (30-1) - This guy has just 3 starts to his credit and only a maiden win. He is trained by Todd Pletcher so the connections think he must have enough talent to win here. He does have a good pedigree, so the distance should not be a problem. The lack of experience and class quality will make me pass on him and only use for 3rd and 4th.

#9 Revolutionary (9-2) - The 3rd place finisher from the Kentucky Derby gets Javier Castellano back in the saddle who accounts for two of his three wins. There is a lot to like about him, he fires every race, never missed the board in seven career starts, training well, and loves the off track. The main concern is his pedigree with War Pass as his sire, but to his credit he does have A.P. Indy as the dam-sire. Must use in the win spot.

#10 Will Take Charge (20-1) - He has clearly shown he is not on the same level as the top 3 Year olds. In addition, he does not care for an off track as noted by his Derby and Southwest performances. He does have a pedigree that favors a mile and a half. If the track comes up fast on Saturday, I will use him underneath, otherwise I will pass on him altogether.

#11 Vyjack (20-1) - He was compromised by being too close to the pace in the Kentucky Derby. He knows Belmont as he trains here for part of the year and he does not mind the off track as noted by his 2nd career race in which he won by 5 3/4 lengths. He is an intriguing horse from a longshot perspective, but I will only use him underneath.

#12 Palace Malice (12-1) - Another Pletcher runner who shocked a lot of people by setting the fast pace in the Derby. With the Blinkers off, I expect him to sit off the pace and he has experience over the Belmont track (2nd in his career debut). He also has the pedigree to stay for 12 furlongs being out of Curlin and a Royal Anthem mare. I will use on top and underneath.

#13 Unlimited Budget (8-1) - The lone Filly and yet another trained by Todd Pletcher. She comes in off her 3rd place finish in the Kentucky Oaks and has been training exceptionally well over the Belmont surface. My concern is she had the perfect trip in the Oaks and had still only finished 3rd. Another concern is she will be probably not be close to 8-1 as she will be ridden by Rosie Napravnik and trained by Todd Pletcher who trained the last Filly to win the Belmont. Must use underneath for me.

#14 Golden Soul (10-1) - The surprise 2nd place finisher of the Kentucky Derby will have a lot more backers today. It is difficult for me to tell whether that race was a fluke or possibly a sign of things to come. He obviously loves the off track and the added distance only helps his cause. If he can rate closer to the pace he has a chance to win, but he is a must use underneath.

Here is my breakdown:

On Top: 5, 9, 12, 14
Underneath: 2, 3, 7, 8, 11, 13
Tosses: 1, 4, 6, 10

I personally feel the best betting value in the Belmont is #9 Revolutionary and #12 Palace Malice. Best of luck to those wager on the Belmont Stakes.

2013 Preakness Thoughts

Preakness Recap and Thoughts

Let's start with the big race of the day, the Preakness Stakes. Oxbow pulled the upset, with Itsmyluckyday, Mylute, and Orb finishing 2nd, 3rd, and 4th respectively.

- Oxbow, ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens, showed he was the best horse on this day. Trained by another Hall of Fame member, D. Wayne Lukas, Oxbow went to the lead and never looked back. Out of Awesome Again (Breeders' Cup Classic Winner) and Cee's Tizzy (Sire of two time Breeders' Cup Classic Winner Tiznow), Oxbow should relish the longer distances.

- Itsmyluckyday ran much improved today, which leads to the conclusion that the off track really affected his chances in the Kentucky Derby. He really showed the potential to be a serious horse later in the year with his ability to rate off the pace.

- Third place finisher Mylute continues to outrun his pedigree. Out of two time Breeders' Cup Sprint Winner Midnight Lute, he lugged far behind the pace and came on strong at the end. I am not convinced he will like the longer distances, but as long as he continues to race like he has during this Triple Crown, I have to respect him and his chances.

- Orb really had no excuses with his 4th place finish as he did not have his usual late kick. Perhaps there was not enough speed for him or he did not like the track/being on the rail. In any case, he was not the best horse today. As long as he is healthy, he should be a major player throughout the remainder of the year.

- Goldencents (5th) continues to give the impression of a need the lead type as he has not been dangerous in the last two races. I would love to see this guy as a 7 furlong sprinter or a miler.

- Departing (6th) made a solid middle move before tiring but was never really a threat. He has tons of potential and I would expect him to be a force later in the year with more experience.

- Will Take Charge (7th) did not fire at all today, nor did he in the Kentucky Derby. He has the pedigree to like the longer races, but he does not have the form.

- Govenor Charlie (8th) broke poorly and subsequently raced poorly. He missed the Derby due to foot issues which I believe played a factor in today's showing. Look for him to show up in the California races later in the year.

- Titletown Five (9th) is owned by Paul Hornung, but this horse was always outclassed in this race. He is need of a step down or two to be competitive.

The Preakness Stakes results chart can be found here (via Equibase)

I want to mention that I found the buzz around Orb to be particularly absurd this year. I heard numerous times that Orb would be the next Triple Crown winner and he was better than several other Triple Crown misses like Smarty Jones. It is not uncommon to hear about a Triple Crown possibility, but it almost always starts after the conclusion of the Preakness. The hype machine was in full force immediately following the conclusion of the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago. It almost felt like there was an air of "destiny" as the Phipps finally got a Kentucky Derby winner and the highly respected Shug McGaughey got a chance to showcase his old school nature. The problem with the hype is that none of the aforementioned points matter and no sport goes from the highs to the lows like horse racing. 

Preakness Undercard Thoughts

Race 8 (Grade 3 DuPont Distaff) was a solid field despite only five horses running. Summer Applause got back to her winning ways as she sat right off the pace before taking the lead in the stretch and drawing off. Runner up Sea Island showed she can run on just about any track or surface. She looked like she was going to go by the eventual winner Summer Applause, but she could not out kick her. Brushed By a Star finished 3rd after sitting in last until the stretch. It was a decent performance given that the pace was very slow (1:15.70 for 6 furlongs). Results chart (via Equibase).

Race 9 (Grade 3 Gallorette Handicap) was a very good performance by Pianist. She went gate to wire under fast fractions and never looked threatened. Samitar (4th) and Old Tune (5th) had perfect spots during the race, but had no kick in the stretch. Very disappointing race from those two. Results chart (via Equibase).

Race 10 (Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap) showcased a great race by Sage Valley. He was able to sit off the pace and draw off for a 2 1/4 length win. Keep in mind this was his first start since November 9, 2012. 2nd place finisher Hardened Wildcat came from way back in a good effort by him. Results chart (via Equibase).

Race 11 (Grade 2 Dixie) was a bit of foreshadowing with Skyring, trained by D. Wayne Lukas, going gate to wire under Gary Stevens. As previously mentioned, Stevens would do the same thing one race later with Oxbow. Skyring has now won two years in a row on the Preakness undercard, both done in the gate to wire fashion on the Pimlico turf course. Wilcox Inn sat midpack about five lengths off the pace and made a nice run in the stretch. He was getting to Skyring, but he could not get up in time. Optimizer had the perfect trip right behind the leaders and save ground throughout. He was out-kicked by Wilcox Inn in the final furlong and finished 3rd. Results chart (via Equibase).

The entire Preakness Day results charts can be found here, via Equibase.

Unfortunately, with Orb's loss, the Triple Crown remains vacated for the 35th year in a row. I would expect a full field for the Belmont Stakes in three weeks' time and that should make for a good wagering event.

2013 Preakness Day

2013 Preakness Day Betting Selections

First let me start by saying that I believe this is a tremendous betting card. I personally see value in every race even if favorites win. As most know, Orb is going for the second jewel in the Triple Crown after winning the Kentucky Derby on May 4. There is the possibility of rain in Baltimore on Saturday. Here is the breakdown of the Preakness day card:

Race 1 (10:45 AM ET) - Optional Claimer $25K NW 2X for 3 YO+ (1 1/16 Miles on Dirt)

            A solid Optional Claiming event to start the day. #5 Benny Or Local (7-2) should be in a good spot and he is in excellent form with two straight wins (both at Pimlico). #9 Bake Shop (5-1) has been excellent since his layoff. He too is a winner of two in a row and he has shown the ability to rate his speed. #6 Hakama (7-2) also has a solid chance. The horse he lost to in his last race (Indian Dance) finished 4^th in the Grade 3 Pimlico Special.

Bets

Exacta: 5-6-9 with 1-4-5-6-7-9

Daily Double: 5-6-9 with 5-7

Race 2 (11:18 AM ET) - Maryland Bred Stakes for 3 YO+ (1 1/16 Miles on Dirt)

            I think the 7-5 favorite, #9 Hello Lover, is vulnerable here. #5 Who Dat Boy (7-2) attracts the services of Rosie Napravnik and is in good form with 2 wins and a second in his last three starts. #7 No Brakes (5-1) should be able to come from off the pace late. His trainer is 17% 1^st time off the claim. The aforementioned #9 Hello Lover (7-5) deserves consideration based upon the 12 for 31 lifetime record. My concern is the trainer is 0 for 15 when coming off a 61-180 day layoff.

Bets

None

Race 3 (11:53 AM ET) - Allowance NW 1X for 3 YO+ (5 Furlongs on Turf)

            The always entertaining 5 furlong turf sprint is ultra competitive in this rendition. I’m going to take a big price here in #11 Star Maneuver (30-1). This guys best races come sprinting on the turf (3 starts, 1 Win, 1 second) and he should get a lively pace up front. 30-1 is just too high for me to ignore on this one. #5 Bowman’s Boy (9-2) won at Pimlico going 5 furlongs on turf in his last race. He should get a great trip just behind the leaders. If #6 Inflamed Spirit (5-1) can run back to his turf sprint at Santa Anita, he is strictly the one to beat. Has a huge chance if he rates off the leaders.

Bets

Exacta: 5-6-7-11 with 3-5-6-7-9-11-12-13

Win-Place-Show on #11

Race 4 (12:30 PM ET) - Stakes Race for 2 YO (5 Furlongs on Dirt)

            #6 Sweet Emma Rose (7-5) absolutely crushed the field in her first start. She is trained by the always dangerous Wesley Ward who is very good with 2 year olds. #5 Silvertoungedtommy (8-1) broke his maiden here at Pimlico. I’m not sure he has enough speed to beat the #4 and #6 to the lead. If he can get a hot pace and he can rate off the speed, he has a solid chance. #4 No Nay Never (5-2) is also trained by Wesley Ward. He has enough speed to clear the field, but Rosario chose #6 over him.

Bets

None

Race 5 (1:09 PM ET) - Allowance NW 1X for 3 YO+ F&M (1 1/16 Miles on Turf)

            #2 Hold Our Destiny (8-1) should move forward in her 2^nd start off the layoff. She ran 3^rd by half a length in her previous start and should be in prime position just behind the leaders. Big chance, but I am not sure if she will be anywhere close to 8-1. #7 Joy (6-1) ran evenly in her previous start, but that was her first route race on turf. She has the right to improve, especially since Graham Motion trains her. #5 High Moral Ground (8-1) is an interesting horse here. She likes this distance on the turf (4 starts, 2 wins and 2 seconds), but is a deep closer and may not get the speed she needs to win. I still respect her chances.

Bets

Exacta: 2-5-7 with 2-3-5-6-7-9-11-12-14

Win-Place-Show on #2 if 4-1 or better

Race 6 (1:50 PM ET) - Chick Lang Stakes for 3 YO (6 Furlongs on Dirt)

            #7 City of Weston (6-1) rates a good chance in this race. I see this guy sitting behind a hot pace and pouncing on the leaders in the stretch. This guy has won 3 in a row at three different tracks. #3 Bobcat Jim (6-1) will be on the lead and will be tough to dispatch. His last two races have been very good and he improved both times. He will have company on the lead, but he has shown the ability to win speed duels. #2 Zee Bros (2-1) trained by the legendary Bob Baffert is another one in here who will show speed. Not sure how he will handle the speed duel, but has a good chance given his connections. #9 Undrafted (3-1) will have the perfect trip off the leaders.

Bets

Win-Place-Show on #7

Exacta: 7 with 2-3-4-8-9

Exacta: 2-3-4-8-9 with 7

Race 7 (2:33 PM ET) – James Murphy Stakes for 3 YO (1 Mile on Turf)

            #11 English Minister (10-1) is another longshot selection for me. He closed like a freight train in his last race in his first start in 5 1/2 months. His only turf route was a comfortable win and he has the pedigree to improve. #4 Heat Press (6-1) should move forward off his last race. Graham Motion trains and he is solid with his turf starters. This guy has never raced on turf, but his sire (Malibu Moon) is 10% with First Time Turf starters. #9 China Holiday (8-1) ran very well in a Florida Bred Stakes race. He should get a great spot in the race behind the leaders. #1 Notacatbutallama (9-5) is the class of this field, but is coming off a 4+ month layoff. She loves turf and I respect Todd Pletcher with horses off a layoff (he hits with 25% of his layoff starters).

Bets

Win-Place-Show #11

Pick 3 1-4-9-11 with 3-5-6-7 with 3-4-5-6-10

Race 8 (3:14 PM ET) – Grade 3 DuPont Distaff for 3 YO+ F&M (1 1/16 Miles on Dirt)

            #3 Moon Philly (7-2) may get the lead by default as this race is devoid of any true speed horse. She has not raced since late February but she is training great and loves this distance (4 starts, 2 wins, 2 seconds). She should be a nice price given the presence of the 2 favorites. #6 Summer Applause (9-5) is a very versatile filly which is good given the lack of pace. She comes in off a fourth place finish in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom where she had little excuse. This field is easier and she should have a better showing. #7 Brushed by a Star (2-1) is a consistent filly who will have a perfect trip in this race. #5 Sea Island (6-1) is a value play. She is making her second start off a 4 1/2 month layoff and is trained by Shug McGaughey (who trains Orb). She will run her race and will be coming off the pace.

Bets

Win-Place-Show on #3

Exacta 3-5 with 3-5-6-7

Race 9 (4:00 PM ET) – Grade 3 Gallorette for 3 YO+ F&M (1 1/16 Miles on Turf)

            #10 Appealing Cat (10-1) should get a great trip right off the speed with Edgar Prado aboard in a race that does not have a lot of speed. #6 Embarr (8-1) is an interesting horse in here. She loves the Pimlico turf course (3 wins from 3 starts) and she is making her second start off a 5 1/2 month layoff. She should get a perfect trip, but I would be shocked if she was close to 8-1. #5 Old Tune (BRZ) (4-1) will probably go to the lead in here. She gets the world’s hottest jockey in Joel Rosario and in her last race was uncharacteristically far back. #3 Pianist (4-1) and #4 Samitar (GB) (5-2) both deserve long looks as they are trained by Chad Brown.

Bets

Exacta: 6-10 with All

Exacta: All with 6-10

Race 10 (4:42 PM ET) – Grade 3 Maryland Sprint for 3 YO+ (6 Furlongs on Dirt)

            Another great race and I will go with #2 Broad Rule (15-1). He should get a hot pace to run at and should be in the perfect spot to rally. He likes Pimlico (2 wins and 1 second from 3 starts) and his trainer is 3 for 12 with three more seconds to start the meet. #4 Hardened Wildcat (4-1) is making his second start off the layoff and will have a great trip here. #10 Sage Valley (5-2) is the fastest horse in here and that could spell trouble for this field. He has not started since November 2012, but his trainer is 29% off a layoff of 180 days or longer. Will have a big say in this race.

Bets

Win-Place-Show #2

Exacta box: 1-2-4-7-10

Race 11 (6:20 PM ET) – Grade 2 Dixie for 3 YO+ (1 1/8 Miles on Turf)

            Another race with many ways to go. #4 Imagining (5-1) is coming into this race off a 3 1/2 length score which was his first start in 9 months. Being trained by Shug McGaughey adds to the appeal and he will be very tough in here. #1 Wilcox Inn (6-1) should save all the ground from the rail and be pretty close to the leaders at the top of the stretch. #9 Swift Warrior (4-1) will be making his first start in 3 months. He is a versatile horse who can go to lead or sit off the pace and that makes him dangerous here.

Bets

Exacta: 1-4-9 with 1-2-4-5-7-9-10 ($18 per unit)

Daily Double: 1-4-9 with 1-4-5-6-7-9 ($18 per unit)

Race 12 (5:25 PM ET) – Grade 1 Preakness for 3 YO (1 3/16 Miles on Dirt)

            #1 Orb (1-1) is clearly the one to beat. He really does not have many checks against him outside of the rail draw, but that even helps him save ground throughout. #9 Itsmyluckyday (10-1) was my top pick for the Kentucky Derby. He really did not have any excuses last time as and was not a match for Orb in the Florida Derby. Nice value play IF (and that is a big IF) Orb fails to deliver and he runs well. #4 Departing (6-1) is 4 for 5 lifetime and should get an ideal pace ahead of him. He will make one run and will have to out-kick Orb late if he wants the Preakness glory.

Bets

Exacta: 1 with 4-6-7-9

Win-Place-Show #9

Trifecta: 4 with 1-6-7-9 with All

Trifecta: 1-6-7-9 with 4 with All

Trifecta: 1-6-7-9 with All with 4

Race 13 (7:08 PM ET) – Allowance NW 1X for 3 YO+ (1 1/16 Miles on Dirt)

            #1 Bluegrass Springs (10-1) should get to the lead from the rail. He ran very well in his last race in March going gate to wire. I do not believe he will be near his 10-1 morning line price. #3 Ethelred (10-1) stands a solid chance. He can go to the lead or he can stalk the pace. #8 Code West (4-5) will be heavily bet from the barn of Bob Baffert. I will play against him after his last race in which he was beat as the heavy favorite.

Bets

Exacta: 1-3 with 1-2-3-8-10-11-12

Exacta: 1-2-3-8-10-11-12 with 1-3

Win-Place-Show #3

Good luck to all on Preakness Day