2013 Belmont Stakes Day Recap

Belmont Stakes Recap

Palace Malice deserves credit for his effort. He ran up close to a quick pace and still had enough left to hang on for the victory. Oxbow also deserves credit for his effort in the Belmont. He pressed the pace throughout and hung on for 2nd after racing in the previous two Triple Crown Races. Despite finishing 3rd, Orb has to be considered a disappointment. He was at his home track, had a perfect pace scenario, but only had enough to finish 3rd. The fact that he could not beat horses near the lead in Palace Malice and Oxbow is not a good sign. Orb has shown he is a one run closer. The same applies to Revolutionary who finished 5th in the Belmont. With a 13th Place finish in the Belmont, Freedom Child showed he was the beneficiary of Speed biased track in his Peter Pan victory. I also wonder whether he is a need the lead type which is how he won his 2 races.

The jury is still out about how good the 3 year old crop is. It does not look very good at this point after seeing the 3 year olds beat up on each other in the Triple Crown. In fairness, we have not seen the top 3 year olds face older horses yet and there is still 5 months to the Breeders Cup Classic. At this point I am hopeful, but not optimistic the next 5 months will produce a 3 year old that will be competitive with older horses.

Undercard Thoughts

Race 6 - Easy Goer Stakes (1 1/16 Miles on Dirt)

This race was all about #2 Power Broker who received a 99 Beyer Speed Figure for his win. He set solid fractions en route to a gate to wire victory. Based upon his races, he has shown an affinity for 8.5 Furlong (1 1/16 Miles) races and that could lead him to being a factor in the Dirt Mile division.

Race 7 - Grade 2 True North Handicap (6 Furlongs on Dirt)

The ultra-talented, yet extremely fragile Fast Bullet gave a very good performance. Keep in mind, this guy was making his first start in 6 months and he did not look tired one bit during the final sixteenth of a mile. He earned a BSF of 110 which gives him three Beyer numbers of 100 or greater in just five career starts. As long as Fast Bullet is healthy I would expect him to have a BIG say in the Breeders Cup Sprint at Santa Anita in November. 

Race 8 - Grade 1 Just A Game Stakes (1 Mile on Turf)

It is more than safe to say that Stephanie's Kitten likes a turf course with moisture in it. She is now 4 for 4 lifetime when the Turf is not listed as firm. Coincidentally, all 4 of those wins came at a distance of 1 Mile. She earned a Beyer number of 101 for this race and she is really developing into a nice filly. I would expect to hear from her down the road to the Breeders Cup. Noteworthy is the runner up, Better Lucky, who had a position throughout the race but was unable to get the beter of Stephanie's Kitten. Better Lucky certainly has the talent and ability to be competitive in the Filly & Mare Turf Division.

Race 9 - Grade 2 Woody Stephens Handicap (7 Furlongs on Dirt)

This race was won by the fast closing Forty Tales who earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure for his effort. He got a dream pace scenario set up by the speedy Let 'Em Shine and Forty Tales Capitalized on that. 2nd place finisher Declan's Warrior closed well and it is important to note that he had to alter his course in mid stretch. I like his chances moving forward in the Sprint Division, especially if he can sit mid pack off fast fractions. 3rd Place finisher Clearly Now made a move on the turn after sitting right off the speed, but could not hang on for a better finish. Let 'Em Shine set the extremely fast pace and managed to hang on for 4th place beaten just 1 length. I would expect Let 'Em Shine to stick to 6 Furlongs and would love to see him and Fast Bullet tangle at some point.

Race 10 - Grade 1 Manhattan Handicap (1 1/4 Miles on Turf)

Point of Entry showed all his class on a surface he does not care for. Unfortunately, he suffered a condylar fracture which will keep him out of racing for the foreseeable future. His 104 Beyer number is marks his 5th straight race in which he earned a Beyer of 100+. Hopefully we see this guy back next year, if not late this year. Optimizer ran a solid race for 2nd after stalking the pace throughout. He has found a good home going long on the Turf and really appreciates the softer turf courses.

2013 Belmont Stakes Thoughts

2013 Belmont Stakes

This years Belmont Stakes lacks the Triple Crown fervor, but there are still headlines. There is the Orb vs. Oxbow showdown, Pletcher has five horses entered, and a Filly versus the Boys just to name a few. I will breakdown the entire race horse by horse. I am assessing these horses under the assumption there will be an off track.

#1 Frac Daddy (30-1) - He is entering off a 16th place finish in the Kentucky Derby five weeks ago. He leaves a lot to be desired as he appears to be a cut below the best horses. I think a mile and a half is farther than he wants to go and his latest workout does not instill confidence. On the positive side, he does have a 2nd place finish here and Alan Garcia rides. I do not see him being a factor here.

#2 Freedom Child (8-1) - He is the hot horse off his Peter Pan victory on May 11. He did win that race in impressive fashion by 13 1/2 lengths on a sloppy track. There is plenty of upside with him, but there are a few concerns. First, he will probably want the lead as both of his victories have been in gate to wire fashion. That is a problem with the likes of Oxbow who will also want the lead. Secondly, he is moving up in class and will need to improve further to be this years Belmont Winner. I will pass on him in the Win spot.

#3 Overanlayze (12-1) - Another horse coming into the Belmont off the Kentucky Derby race. He finished 11th that day after an even effort. While I would be quick to dismiss him, that even running style may work in his favor over 12 furlongs. He also gets the services of John Velazquez back and he won the Grade 2 Futurity at Belmont in September 2012. Hopefully this guy can be closer to the pace and will give him a small chance at the upset. I will use him underneath.

#4 Giant Finish (30-1) - He comes off a 10th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He has shown in two starts that he does not care for the off track. There are not a lot of positives in this corner and do not give him much of a chance on Saturday.

#5 Orb (3-1) - This years Triple Crown hopeful failed to live up to expectations in the Preakness three weeks ago, but is back for the Belmont. To be honest, I am shocked he is in the Belmont given Shug McGaughey's conservative nature with horses. Nevertheless, he must be respected as this is Orb's home track. He has no problem with a sloppy track and the distance should not be a problem. He deserves respect and is a must use on top.

#6 Incognito (20-1) - He too ran in the Peter Pan Stakes, but he failed to show much finishing 5th beaten 15 3/4 lengths. He does not appear to favor the off tracks and he is light on class and experience. I will pass on using this guy.

#7 Oxbow (5-1) - The upset winner of the Preakness is back for more in the Belmont. He certainly appreciates when he is given everything on the front end and no pressure. I do not believe he will get the same trip he got in the Preakness as #2 Freedom Child will be there all the way on the lead. At 5-1, I expect this guy to be over bet. I am tempted not to use him underneath, but he can hang on for 3rd or 4th.

#8 Midnight Taboo (30-1) - This guy has just 3 starts to his credit and only a maiden win. He is trained by Todd Pletcher so the connections think he must have enough talent to win here. He does have a good pedigree, so the distance should not be a problem. The lack of experience and class quality will make me pass on him and only use for 3rd and 4th.

#9 Revolutionary (9-2) - The 3rd place finisher from the Kentucky Derby gets Javier Castellano back in the saddle who accounts for two of his three wins. There is a lot to like about him, he fires every race, never missed the board in seven career starts, training well, and loves the off track. The main concern is his pedigree with War Pass as his sire, but to his credit he does have A.P. Indy as the dam-sire. Must use in the win spot.

#10 Will Take Charge (20-1) - He has clearly shown he is not on the same level as the top 3 Year olds. In addition, he does not care for an off track as noted by his Derby and Southwest performances. He does have a pedigree that favors a mile and a half. If the track comes up fast on Saturday, I will use him underneath, otherwise I will pass on him altogether.

#11 Vyjack (20-1) - He was compromised by being too close to the pace in the Kentucky Derby. He knows Belmont as he trains here for part of the year and he does not mind the off track as noted by his 2nd career race in which he won by 5 3/4 lengths. He is an intriguing horse from a longshot perspective, but I will only use him underneath.

#12 Palace Malice (12-1) - Another Pletcher runner who shocked a lot of people by setting the fast pace in the Derby. With the Blinkers off, I expect him to sit off the pace and he has experience over the Belmont track (2nd in his career debut). He also has the pedigree to stay for 12 furlongs being out of Curlin and a Royal Anthem mare. I will use on top and underneath.

#13 Unlimited Budget (8-1) - The lone Filly and yet another trained by Todd Pletcher. She comes in off her 3rd place finish in the Kentucky Oaks and has been training exceptionally well over the Belmont surface. My concern is she had the perfect trip in the Oaks and had still only finished 3rd. Another concern is she will be probably not be close to 8-1 as she will be ridden by Rosie Napravnik and trained by Todd Pletcher who trained the last Filly to win the Belmont. Must use underneath for me.

#14 Golden Soul (10-1) - The surprise 2nd place finisher of the Kentucky Derby will have a lot more backers today. It is difficult for me to tell whether that race was a fluke or possibly a sign of things to come. He obviously loves the off track and the added distance only helps his cause. If he can rate closer to the pace he has a chance to win, but he is a must use underneath.

Here is my breakdown:

On Top: 5, 9, 12, 14
Underneath: 2, 3, 7, 8, 11, 13
Tosses: 1, 4, 6, 10

I personally feel the best betting value in the Belmont is #9 Revolutionary and #12 Palace Malice. Best of luck to those wager on the Belmont Stakes.

Belmont Stakes Eve Thoughts

Belmont Thoughts for Friday, June 7, 2013

There are only 2 stakes races on the Belmont Eve card, the Grade 3 Jaipur and the Grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap. As of this writing it is showing that rain will be present on Friday. Here is the breakdown of the two graded stakes races:

Race 9 (5:11 PM ET) - Grade 3 Jaipur Stakes for 3 YO+ (7 Furlongs on the Turf)

I believe this race will stay on the Turf. In the event it does not, this race will be run at 7 Furlongs on the Dirt. The more I look at this race, the more I come back to #1 Mr. Commons (9-5). He is getting major class relief after losing to reigning Horse of the Year Wise Dan. He has the perfect running style to sit behind the speed and run past them in the stretch. He offers little in the way of value at 9-5 on the morning line. #3 Night Officer (12-1) is an intriguing long shot. He makes his third start off a five month layoff and his first two starts this year have been good with a win and a second. In addition, he gets Joel Rosario to ride and is 2 for 2 on the Belmont Turf course. #6 Summer Breezing (6-1) is another horse to consider. He loves this distance (2 for 2) and has a win over the belmont turf course. My concern is he likes to be on the lead and there appears to be an abundance of speed. #2 Beau Choix (9-2) will be closing late and also owns a win over this distance.

If this race should be taken off the turn, the main contenders are the three Main Track Only entrants #10 Politcallycorrect (6-1), #11 Reload (3-1), and #12 Souper Speedy (2-1). The latter two will be tough to beat in the off going.

Race 10 (5:45 ET) - Grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap for 3 YO+ (1 1/2 Miles on the Dirt)

#1 Birdrun (12-1) is my longshot pick to win this edition of the Brooklyn Handicap. He won this race in 2011 in gate to wire fashion and I am hoping he does the same this year. There is the concern that his form has tailed off since his nearly 60 length loss in the 2012 Brooklyn Handicap and his lackluster race in May. #3 Quick Casablanca (CHI) (4-1) is making his second start off a year long break and he should move forward. He was only beaten by 2 1/2 lengths in his first start this year on the turf and the distance is not a problem. #8 Ruler On Ice (8-1) is the winner of the 2011 Belmont Stakes run at the same distance of the Brooklyn. He should sit right behind the leaders and he has no problem handling the off track (6 starts, 2 wins, 2 seconds). #2 Keep Me Informed (20-1) is worthy of a long look in the exotics. This guy has 7 starts on a wet track with 3 wins and 4 third place finishes. In addition, he loves Belmont (7 starts, 2 wins, 1 second, 3 thirds). The main concern is he does not appear to be on the same class level as the others in here, but at 20-1 (and maybe higher at post time) he has a chance. Being out of A.P. Indy, his pedigree suggests the 1 1/2 mile trip should not be a problem.

Good luck to those who play Belmont on Friday. I will have the complete Belmont Stakes breakdown within the next day.