Belmont Thoughts for Friday, June 7, 2013
There are only 2 stakes races on the Belmont Eve card, the Grade 3 Jaipur and the Grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap. As of this writing it is showing that rain will be present on Friday. Here is the breakdown of the two graded stakes races:
Race 9 (5:11 PM ET) - Grade 3 Jaipur Stakes for 3 YO+ (7 Furlongs on the Turf)
I believe this race will stay on the Turf. In the event it does not, this race will be run at 7 Furlongs on the Dirt. The more I look at this race, the more I come back to #1 Mr. Commons (9-5). He is getting major class relief after losing to reigning Horse of the Year Wise Dan. He has the perfect running style to sit behind the speed and run past them in the stretch. He offers little in the way of value at 9-5 on the morning line. #3 Night Officer (12-1) is an intriguing long shot. He makes his third start off a five month layoff and his first two starts this year have been good with a win and a second. In addition, he gets Joel Rosario to ride and is 2 for 2 on the Belmont Turf course. #6 Summer Breezing (6-1) is another horse to consider. He loves this distance (2 for 2) and has a win over the belmont turf course. My concern is he likes to be on the lead and there appears to be an abundance of speed. #2 Beau Choix (9-2) will be closing late and also owns a win over this distance.
If this race should be taken off the turn, the main contenders are the three Main Track Only entrants #10 Politcallycorrect (6-1), #11 Reload (3-1), and #12 Souper Speedy (2-1). The latter two will be tough to beat in the off going.
Race 10 (5:45 ET) - Grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap for 3 YO+ (1 1/2 Miles on the Dirt)
#1 Birdrun (12-1) is my longshot pick to win this edition of the Brooklyn Handicap. He won this race in 2011 in gate to wire fashion and I am hoping he does the same this year. There is the concern that his form has tailed off since his nearly 60 length loss in the 2012 Brooklyn Handicap and his lackluster race in May. #3 Quick Casablanca (CHI) (4-1) is making his second start off a year long break and he should move forward. He was only beaten by 2 1/2 lengths in his first start this year on the turf and the distance is not a problem. #8 Ruler On Ice (8-1) is the winner of the 2011 Belmont Stakes run at the same distance of the Brooklyn. He should sit right behind the leaders and he has no problem handling the off track (6 starts, 2 wins, 2 seconds). #2 Keep Me Informed (20-1) is worthy of a long look in the exotics. This guy has 7 starts on a wet track with 3 wins and 4 third place finishes. In addition, he loves Belmont (7 starts, 2 wins, 1 second, 3 thirds). The main concern is he does not appear to be on the same class level as the others in here, but at 20-1 (and maybe higher at post time) he has a chance. Being out of A.P. Indy, his pedigree suggests the 1 1/2 mile trip should not be a problem.
Good luck to those who play Belmont on Friday. I will have the complete Belmont Stakes breakdown within the next day.
