2013 Belmont Stakes Day Recap

Belmont Stakes Recap

Palace Malice deserves credit for his effort. He ran up close to a quick pace and still had enough left to hang on for the victory. Oxbow also deserves credit for his effort in the Belmont. He pressed the pace throughout and hung on for 2nd after racing in the previous two Triple Crown Races. Despite finishing 3rd, Orb has to be considered a disappointment. He was at his home track, had a perfect pace scenario, but only had enough to finish 3rd. The fact that he could not beat horses near the lead in Palace Malice and Oxbow is not a good sign. Orb has shown he is a one run closer. The same applies to Revolutionary who finished 5th in the Belmont. With a 13th Place finish in the Belmont, Freedom Child showed he was the beneficiary of Speed biased track in his Peter Pan victory. I also wonder whether he is a need the lead type which is how he won his 2 races.

The jury is still out about how good the 3 year old crop is. It does not look very good at this point after seeing the 3 year olds beat up on each other in the Triple Crown. In fairness, we have not seen the top 3 year olds face older horses yet and there is still 5 months to the Breeders Cup Classic. At this point I am hopeful, but not optimistic the next 5 months will produce a 3 year old that will be competitive with older horses.

Undercard Thoughts

Race 6 - Easy Goer Stakes (1 1/16 Miles on Dirt)

This race was all about #2 Power Broker who received a 99 Beyer Speed Figure for his win. He set solid fractions en route to a gate to wire victory. Based upon his races, he has shown an affinity for 8.5 Furlong (1 1/16 Miles) races and that could lead him to being a factor in the Dirt Mile division.

Race 7 - Grade 2 True North Handicap (6 Furlongs on Dirt)

The ultra-talented, yet extremely fragile Fast Bullet gave a very good performance. Keep in mind, this guy was making his first start in 6 months and he did not look tired one bit during the final sixteenth of a mile. He earned a BSF of 110 which gives him three Beyer numbers of 100 or greater in just five career starts. As long as Fast Bullet is healthy I would expect him to have a BIG say in the Breeders Cup Sprint at Santa Anita in November. 

Race 8 - Grade 1 Just A Game Stakes (1 Mile on Turf)

It is more than safe to say that Stephanie's Kitten likes a turf course with moisture in it. She is now 4 for 4 lifetime when the Turf is not listed as firm. Coincidentally, all 4 of those wins came at a distance of 1 Mile. She earned a Beyer number of 101 for this race and she is really developing into a nice filly. I would expect to hear from her down the road to the Breeders Cup. Noteworthy is the runner up, Better Lucky, who had a position throughout the race but was unable to get the beter of Stephanie's Kitten. Better Lucky certainly has the talent and ability to be competitive in the Filly & Mare Turf Division.

Race 9 - Grade 2 Woody Stephens Handicap (7 Furlongs on Dirt)

This race was won by the fast closing Forty Tales who earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure for his effort. He got a dream pace scenario set up by the speedy Let 'Em Shine and Forty Tales Capitalized on that. 2nd place finisher Declan's Warrior closed well and it is important to note that he had to alter his course in mid stretch. I like his chances moving forward in the Sprint Division, especially if he can sit mid pack off fast fractions. 3rd Place finisher Clearly Now made a move on the turn after sitting right off the speed, but could not hang on for a better finish. Let 'Em Shine set the extremely fast pace and managed to hang on for 4th place beaten just 1 length. I would expect Let 'Em Shine to stick to 6 Furlongs and would love to see him and Fast Bullet tangle at some point.

Race 10 - Grade 1 Manhattan Handicap (1 1/4 Miles on Turf)

Point of Entry showed all his class on a surface he does not care for. Unfortunately, he suffered a condylar fracture which will keep him out of racing for the foreseeable future. His 104 Beyer number is marks his 5th straight race in which he earned a Beyer of 100+. Hopefully we see this guy back next year, if not late this year. Optimizer ran a solid race for 2nd after stalking the pace throughout. He has found a good home going long on the Turf and really appreciates the softer turf courses.

2013 Preakness Thoughts

Preakness Recap and Thoughts

Let's start with the big race of the day, the Preakness Stakes. Oxbow pulled the upset, with Itsmyluckyday, Mylute, and Orb finishing 2nd, 3rd, and 4th respectively.

- Oxbow, ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens, showed he was the best horse on this day. Trained by another Hall of Fame member, D. Wayne Lukas, Oxbow went to the lead and never looked back. Out of Awesome Again (Breeders' Cup Classic Winner) and Cee's Tizzy (Sire of two time Breeders' Cup Classic Winner Tiznow), Oxbow should relish the longer distances.

- Itsmyluckyday ran much improved today, which leads to the conclusion that the off track really affected his chances in the Kentucky Derby. He really showed the potential to be a serious horse later in the year with his ability to rate off the pace.

- Third place finisher Mylute continues to outrun his pedigree. Out of two time Breeders' Cup Sprint Winner Midnight Lute, he lugged far behind the pace and came on strong at the end. I am not convinced he will like the longer distances, but as long as he continues to race like he has during this Triple Crown, I have to respect him and his chances.

- Orb really had no excuses with his 4th place finish as he did not have his usual late kick. Perhaps there was not enough speed for him or he did not like the track/being on the rail. In any case, he was not the best horse today. As long as he is healthy, he should be a major player throughout the remainder of the year.

- Goldencents (5th) continues to give the impression of a need the lead type as he has not been dangerous in the last two races. I would love to see this guy as a 7 furlong sprinter or a miler.

- Departing (6th) made a solid middle move before tiring but was never really a threat. He has tons of potential and I would expect him to be a force later in the year with more experience.

- Will Take Charge (7th) did not fire at all today, nor did he in the Kentucky Derby. He has the pedigree to like the longer races, but he does not have the form.

- Govenor Charlie (8th) broke poorly and subsequently raced poorly. He missed the Derby due to foot issues which I believe played a factor in today's showing. Look for him to show up in the California races later in the year.

- Titletown Five (9th) is owned by Paul Hornung, but this horse was always outclassed in this race. He is need of a step down or two to be competitive.

The Preakness Stakes results chart can be found here (via Equibase)

I want to mention that I found the buzz around Orb to be particularly absurd this year. I heard numerous times that Orb would be the next Triple Crown winner and he was better than several other Triple Crown misses like Smarty Jones. It is not uncommon to hear about a Triple Crown possibility, but it almost always starts after the conclusion of the Preakness. The hype machine was in full force immediately following the conclusion of the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago. It almost felt like there was an air of "destiny" as the Phipps finally got a Kentucky Derby winner and the highly respected Shug McGaughey got a chance to showcase his old school nature. The problem with the hype is that none of the aforementioned points matter and no sport goes from the highs to the lows like horse racing. 

Preakness Undercard Thoughts

Race 8 (Grade 3 DuPont Distaff) was a solid field despite only five horses running. Summer Applause got back to her winning ways as she sat right off the pace before taking the lead in the stretch and drawing off. Runner up Sea Island showed she can run on just about any track or surface. She looked like she was going to go by the eventual winner Summer Applause, but she could not out kick her. Brushed By a Star finished 3rd after sitting in last until the stretch. It was a decent performance given that the pace was very slow (1:15.70 for 6 furlongs). Results chart (via Equibase).

Race 9 (Grade 3 Gallorette Handicap) was a very good performance by Pianist. She went gate to wire under fast fractions and never looked threatened. Samitar (4th) and Old Tune (5th) had perfect spots during the race, but had no kick in the stretch. Very disappointing race from those two. Results chart (via Equibase).

Race 10 (Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap) showcased a great race by Sage Valley. He was able to sit off the pace and draw off for a 2 1/4 length win. Keep in mind this was his first start since November 9, 2012. 2nd place finisher Hardened Wildcat came from way back in a good effort by him. Results chart (via Equibase).

Race 11 (Grade 2 Dixie) was a bit of foreshadowing with Skyring, trained by D. Wayne Lukas, going gate to wire under Gary Stevens. As previously mentioned, Stevens would do the same thing one race later with Oxbow. Skyring has now won two years in a row on the Preakness undercard, both done in the gate to wire fashion on the Pimlico turf course. Wilcox Inn sat midpack about five lengths off the pace and made a nice run in the stretch. He was getting to Skyring, but he could not get up in time. Optimizer had the perfect trip right behind the leaders and save ground throughout. He was out-kicked by Wilcox Inn in the final furlong and finished 3rd. Results chart (via Equibase).

The entire Preakness Day results charts can be found here, via Equibase.

Unfortunately, with Orb's loss, the Triple Crown remains vacated for the 35th year in a row. I would expect a full field for the Belmont Stakes in three weeks' time and that should make for a good wagering event.