2013 Preakness Thoughts

Preakness Recap and Thoughts

Let's start with the big race of the day, the Preakness Stakes. Oxbow pulled the upset, with Itsmyluckyday, Mylute, and Orb finishing 2nd, 3rd, and 4th respectively.

- Oxbow, ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens, showed he was the best horse on this day. Trained by another Hall of Fame member, D. Wayne Lukas, Oxbow went to the lead and never looked back. Out of Awesome Again (Breeders' Cup Classic Winner) and Cee's Tizzy (Sire of two time Breeders' Cup Classic Winner Tiznow), Oxbow should relish the longer distances.

- Itsmyluckyday ran much improved today, which leads to the conclusion that the off track really affected his chances in the Kentucky Derby. He really showed the potential to be a serious horse later in the year with his ability to rate off the pace.

- Third place finisher Mylute continues to outrun his pedigree. Out of two time Breeders' Cup Sprint Winner Midnight Lute, he lugged far behind the pace and came on strong at the end. I am not convinced he will like the longer distances, but as long as he continues to race like he has during this Triple Crown, I have to respect him and his chances.

- Orb really had no excuses with his 4th place finish as he did not have his usual late kick. Perhaps there was not enough speed for him or he did not like the track/being on the rail. In any case, he was not the best horse today. As long as he is healthy, he should be a major player throughout the remainder of the year.

- Goldencents (5th) continues to give the impression of a need the lead type as he has not been dangerous in the last two races. I would love to see this guy as a 7 furlong sprinter or a miler.

- Departing (6th) made a solid middle move before tiring but was never really a threat. He has tons of potential and I would expect him to be a force later in the year with more experience.

- Will Take Charge (7th) did not fire at all today, nor did he in the Kentucky Derby. He has the pedigree to like the longer races, but he does not have the form.

- Govenor Charlie (8th) broke poorly and subsequently raced poorly. He missed the Derby due to foot issues which I believe played a factor in today's showing. Look for him to show up in the California races later in the year.

- Titletown Five (9th) is owned by Paul Hornung, but this horse was always outclassed in this race. He is need of a step down or two to be competitive.

The Preakness Stakes results chart can be found here (via Equibase)

I want to mention that I found the buzz around Orb to be particularly absurd this year. I heard numerous times that Orb would be the next Triple Crown winner and he was better than several other Triple Crown misses like Smarty Jones. It is not uncommon to hear about a Triple Crown possibility, but it almost always starts after the conclusion of the Preakness. The hype machine was in full force immediately following the conclusion of the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago. It almost felt like there was an air of "destiny" as the Phipps finally got a Kentucky Derby winner and the highly respected Shug McGaughey got a chance to showcase his old school nature. The problem with the hype is that none of the aforementioned points matter and no sport goes from the highs to the lows like horse racing. 

Preakness Undercard Thoughts

Race 8 (Grade 3 DuPont Distaff) was a solid field despite only five horses running. Summer Applause got back to her winning ways as she sat right off the pace before taking the lead in the stretch and drawing off. Runner up Sea Island showed she can run on just about any track or surface. She looked like she was going to go by the eventual winner Summer Applause, but she could not out kick her. Brushed By a Star finished 3rd after sitting in last until the stretch. It was a decent performance given that the pace was very slow (1:15.70 for 6 furlongs). Results chart (via Equibase).

Race 9 (Grade 3 Gallorette Handicap) was a very good performance by Pianist. She went gate to wire under fast fractions and never looked threatened. Samitar (4th) and Old Tune (5th) had perfect spots during the race, but had no kick in the stretch. Very disappointing race from those two. Results chart (via Equibase).

Race 10 (Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap) showcased a great race by Sage Valley. He was able to sit off the pace and draw off for a 2 1/4 length win. Keep in mind this was his first start since November 9, 2012. 2nd place finisher Hardened Wildcat came from way back in a good effort by him. Results chart (via Equibase).

Race 11 (Grade 2 Dixie) was a bit of foreshadowing with Skyring, trained by D. Wayne Lukas, going gate to wire under Gary Stevens. As previously mentioned, Stevens would do the same thing one race later with Oxbow. Skyring has now won two years in a row on the Preakness undercard, both done in the gate to wire fashion on the Pimlico turf course. Wilcox Inn sat midpack about five lengths off the pace and made a nice run in the stretch. He was getting to Skyring, but he could not get up in time. Optimizer had the perfect trip right behind the leaders and save ground throughout. He was out-kicked by Wilcox Inn in the final furlong and finished 3rd. Results chart (via Equibase).

The entire Preakness Day results charts can be found here, via Equibase.

Unfortunately, with Orb's loss, the Triple Crown remains vacated for the 35th year in a row. I would expect a full field for the Belmont Stakes in three weeks' time and that should make for a good wagering event.

2013 Preakness Day

2013 Preakness Day Betting Selections

First let me start by saying that I believe this is a tremendous betting card. I personally see value in every race even if favorites win. As most know, Orb is going for the second jewel in the Triple Crown after winning the Kentucky Derby on May 4. There is the possibility of rain in Baltimore on Saturday. Here is the breakdown of the Preakness day card:

Race 1 (10:45 AM ET) - Optional Claimer $25K NW 2X for 3 YO+ (1 1/16 Miles on Dirt)

            A solid Optional Claiming event to start the day. #5 Benny Or Local (7-2) should be in a good spot and he is in excellent form with two straight wins (both at Pimlico). #9 Bake Shop (5-1) has been excellent since his layoff. He too is a winner of two in a row and he has shown the ability to rate his speed. #6 Hakama (7-2) also has a solid chance. The horse he lost to in his last race (Indian Dance) finished 4^th in the Grade 3 Pimlico Special.

Bets

Exacta: 5-6-9 with 1-4-5-6-7-9

Daily Double: 5-6-9 with 5-7

Race 2 (11:18 AM ET) - Maryland Bred Stakes for 3 YO+ (1 1/16 Miles on Dirt)

            I think the 7-5 favorite, #9 Hello Lover, is vulnerable here. #5 Who Dat Boy (7-2) attracts the services of Rosie Napravnik and is in good form with 2 wins and a second in his last three starts. #7 No Brakes (5-1) should be able to come from off the pace late. His trainer is 17% 1^st time off the claim. The aforementioned #9 Hello Lover (7-5) deserves consideration based upon the 12 for 31 lifetime record. My concern is the trainer is 0 for 15 when coming off a 61-180 day layoff.

Bets

None

Race 3 (11:53 AM ET) - Allowance NW 1X for 3 YO+ (5 Furlongs on Turf)

            The always entertaining 5 furlong turf sprint is ultra competitive in this rendition. I’m going to take a big price here in #11 Star Maneuver (30-1). This guys best races come sprinting on the turf (3 starts, 1 Win, 1 second) and he should get a lively pace up front. 30-1 is just too high for me to ignore on this one. #5 Bowman’s Boy (9-2) won at Pimlico going 5 furlongs on turf in his last race. He should get a great trip just behind the leaders. If #6 Inflamed Spirit (5-1) can run back to his turf sprint at Santa Anita, he is strictly the one to beat. Has a huge chance if he rates off the leaders.

Bets

Exacta: 5-6-7-11 with 3-5-6-7-9-11-12-13

Win-Place-Show on #11

Race 4 (12:30 PM ET) - Stakes Race for 2 YO (5 Furlongs on Dirt)

            #6 Sweet Emma Rose (7-5) absolutely crushed the field in her first start. She is trained by the always dangerous Wesley Ward who is very good with 2 year olds. #5 Silvertoungedtommy (8-1) broke his maiden here at Pimlico. I’m not sure he has enough speed to beat the #4 and #6 to the lead. If he can get a hot pace and he can rate off the speed, he has a solid chance. #4 No Nay Never (5-2) is also trained by Wesley Ward. He has enough speed to clear the field, but Rosario chose #6 over him.

Bets

None

Race 5 (1:09 PM ET) - Allowance NW 1X for 3 YO+ F&M (1 1/16 Miles on Turf)

            #2 Hold Our Destiny (8-1) should move forward in her 2^nd start off the layoff. She ran 3^rd by half a length in her previous start and should be in prime position just behind the leaders. Big chance, but I am not sure if she will be anywhere close to 8-1. #7 Joy (6-1) ran evenly in her previous start, but that was her first route race on turf. She has the right to improve, especially since Graham Motion trains her. #5 High Moral Ground (8-1) is an interesting horse here. She likes this distance on the turf (4 starts, 2 wins and 2 seconds), but is a deep closer and may not get the speed she needs to win. I still respect her chances.

Bets

Exacta: 2-5-7 with 2-3-5-6-7-9-11-12-14

Win-Place-Show on #2 if 4-1 or better

Race 6 (1:50 PM ET) - Chick Lang Stakes for 3 YO (6 Furlongs on Dirt)

            #7 City of Weston (6-1) rates a good chance in this race. I see this guy sitting behind a hot pace and pouncing on the leaders in the stretch. This guy has won 3 in a row at three different tracks. #3 Bobcat Jim (6-1) will be on the lead and will be tough to dispatch. His last two races have been very good and he improved both times. He will have company on the lead, but he has shown the ability to win speed duels. #2 Zee Bros (2-1) trained by the legendary Bob Baffert is another one in here who will show speed. Not sure how he will handle the speed duel, but has a good chance given his connections. #9 Undrafted (3-1) will have the perfect trip off the leaders.

Bets

Win-Place-Show on #7

Exacta: 7 with 2-3-4-8-9

Exacta: 2-3-4-8-9 with 7

Race 7 (2:33 PM ET) – James Murphy Stakes for 3 YO (1 Mile on Turf)

            #11 English Minister (10-1) is another longshot selection for me. He closed like a freight train in his last race in his first start in 5 1/2 months. His only turf route was a comfortable win and he has the pedigree to improve. #4 Heat Press (6-1) should move forward off his last race. Graham Motion trains and he is solid with his turf starters. This guy has never raced on turf, but his sire (Malibu Moon) is 10% with First Time Turf starters. #9 China Holiday (8-1) ran very well in a Florida Bred Stakes race. He should get a great spot in the race behind the leaders. #1 Notacatbutallama (9-5) is the class of this field, but is coming off a 4+ month layoff. She loves turf and I respect Todd Pletcher with horses off a layoff (he hits with 25% of his layoff starters).

Bets

Win-Place-Show #11

Pick 3 1-4-9-11 with 3-5-6-7 with 3-4-5-6-10

Race 8 (3:14 PM ET) – Grade 3 DuPont Distaff for 3 YO+ F&M (1 1/16 Miles on Dirt)

            #3 Moon Philly (7-2) may get the lead by default as this race is devoid of any true speed horse. She has not raced since late February but she is training great and loves this distance (4 starts, 2 wins, 2 seconds). She should be a nice price given the presence of the 2 favorites. #6 Summer Applause (9-5) is a very versatile filly which is good given the lack of pace. She comes in off a fourth place finish in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom where she had little excuse. This field is easier and she should have a better showing. #7 Brushed by a Star (2-1) is a consistent filly who will have a perfect trip in this race. #5 Sea Island (6-1) is a value play. She is making her second start off a 4 1/2 month layoff and is trained by Shug McGaughey (who trains Orb). She will run her race and will be coming off the pace.

Bets

Win-Place-Show on #3

Exacta 3-5 with 3-5-6-7

Race 9 (4:00 PM ET) – Grade 3 Gallorette for 3 YO+ F&M (1 1/16 Miles on Turf)

            #10 Appealing Cat (10-1) should get a great trip right off the speed with Edgar Prado aboard in a race that does not have a lot of speed. #6 Embarr (8-1) is an interesting horse in here. She loves the Pimlico turf course (3 wins from 3 starts) and she is making her second start off a 5 1/2 month layoff. She should get a perfect trip, but I would be shocked if she was close to 8-1. #5 Old Tune (BRZ) (4-1) will probably go to the lead in here. She gets the world’s hottest jockey in Joel Rosario and in her last race was uncharacteristically far back. #3 Pianist (4-1) and #4 Samitar (GB) (5-2) both deserve long looks as they are trained by Chad Brown.

Bets

Exacta: 6-10 with All

Exacta: All with 6-10

Race 10 (4:42 PM ET) – Grade 3 Maryland Sprint for 3 YO+ (6 Furlongs on Dirt)

            Another great race and I will go with #2 Broad Rule (15-1). He should get a hot pace to run at and should be in the perfect spot to rally. He likes Pimlico (2 wins and 1 second from 3 starts) and his trainer is 3 for 12 with three more seconds to start the meet. #4 Hardened Wildcat (4-1) is making his second start off the layoff and will have a great trip here. #10 Sage Valley (5-2) is the fastest horse in here and that could spell trouble for this field. He has not started since November 2012, but his trainer is 29% off a layoff of 180 days or longer. Will have a big say in this race.

Bets

Win-Place-Show #2

Exacta box: 1-2-4-7-10

Race 11 (6:20 PM ET) – Grade 2 Dixie for 3 YO+ (1 1/8 Miles on Turf)

            Another race with many ways to go. #4 Imagining (5-1) is coming into this race off a 3 1/2 length score which was his first start in 9 months. Being trained by Shug McGaughey adds to the appeal and he will be very tough in here. #1 Wilcox Inn (6-1) should save all the ground from the rail and be pretty close to the leaders at the top of the stretch. #9 Swift Warrior (4-1) will be making his first start in 3 months. He is a versatile horse who can go to lead or sit off the pace and that makes him dangerous here.

Bets

Exacta: 1-4-9 with 1-2-4-5-7-9-10 ($18 per unit)

Daily Double: 1-4-9 with 1-4-5-6-7-9 ($18 per unit)

Race 12 (5:25 PM ET) – Grade 1 Preakness for 3 YO (1 3/16 Miles on Dirt)

            #1 Orb (1-1) is clearly the one to beat. He really does not have many checks against him outside of the rail draw, but that even helps him save ground throughout. #9 Itsmyluckyday (10-1) was my top pick for the Kentucky Derby. He really did not have any excuses last time as and was not a match for Orb in the Florida Derby. Nice value play IF (and that is a big IF) Orb fails to deliver and he runs well. #4 Departing (6-1) is 4 for 5 lifetime and should get an ideal pace ahead of him. He will make one run and will have to out-kick Orb late if he wants the Preakness glory.

Bets

Exacta: 1 with 4-6-7-9

Win-Place-Show #9

Trifecta: 4 with 1-6-7-9 with All

Trifecta: 1-6-7-9 with 4 with All

Trifecta: 1-6-7-9 with All with 4

Race 13 (7:08 PM ET) – Allowance NW 1X for 3 YO+ (1 1/16 Miles on Dirt)

            #1 Bluegrass Springs (10-1) should get to the lead from the rail. He ran very well in his last race in March going gate to wire. I do not believe he will be near his 10-1 morning line price. #3 Ethelred (10-1) stands a solid chance. He can go to the lead or he can stalk the pace. #8 Code West (4-5) will be heavily bet from the barn of Bob Baffert. I will play against him after his last race in which he was beat as the heavy favorite.

Bets

Exacta: 1-3 with 1-2-3-8-10-11-12

Exacta: 1-2-3-8-10-11-12 with 1-3

Win-Place-Show #3

Good luck to all on Preakness Day