2013 Belmont Stakes
This years Belmont Stakes lacks the Triple Crown fervor, but there are still headlines. There is the Orb vs. Oxbow showdown, Pletcher has five horses entered, and a Filly versus the Boys just to name a few. I will breakdown the entire race horse by horse. I am assessing these horses under the assumption there will be an off track.
#1 Frac Daddy (30-1) - He is entering off a 16th place finish in the Kentucky Derby five weeks ago. He leaves a lot to be desired as he appears to be a cut below the best horses. I think a mile and a half is farther than he wants to go and his latest workout does not instill confidence. On the positive side, he does have a 2nd place finish here and Alan Garcia rides. I do not see him being a factor here.
#2 Freedom Child (8-1) - He is the hot horse off his Peter Pan victory on May 11. He did win that race in impressive fashion by 13 1/2 lengths on a sloppy track. There is plenty of upside with him, but there are a few concerns. First, he will probably want the lead as both of his victories have been in gate to wire fashion. That is a problem with the likes of Oxbow who will also want the lead. Secondly, he is moving up in class and will need to improve further to be this years Belmont Winner. I will pass on him in the Win spot.
#3 Overanlayze (12-1) - Another horse coming into the Belmont off the Kentucky Derby race. He finished 11th that day after an even effort. While I would be quick to dismiss him, that even running style may work in his favor over 12 furlongs. He also gets the services of John Velazquez back and he won the Grade 2 Futurity at Belmont in September 2012. Hopefully this guy can be closer to the pace and will give him a small chance at the upset. I will use him underneath.
#4 Giant Finish (30-1) - He comes off a 10th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He has shown in two starts that he does not care for the off track. There are not a lot of positives in this corner and do not give him much of a chance on Saturday.
#5 Orb (3-1) - This years Triple Crown hopeful failed to live up to expectations in the Preakness three weeks ago, but is back for the Belmont. To be honest, I am shocked he is in the Belmont given Shug McGaughey's conservative nature with horses. Nevertheless, he must be respected as this is Orb's home track. He has no problem with a sloppy track and the distance should not be a problem. He deserves respect and is a must use on top.
#6 Incognito (20-1) - He too ran in the Peter Pan Stakes, but he failed to show much finishing 5th beaten 15 3/4 lengths. He does not appear to favor the off tracks and he is light on class and experience. I will pass on using this guy.
#7 Oxbow (5-1) - The upset winner of the Preakness is back for more in the Belmont. He certainly appreciates when he is given everything on the front end and no pressure. I do not believe he will get the same trip he got in the Preakness as #2 Freedom Child will be there all the way on the lead. At 5-1, I expect this guy to be over bet. I am tempted not to use him underneath, but he can hang on for 3rd or 4th.
#8 Midnight Taboo (30-1) - This guy has just 3 starts to his credit and only a maiden win. He is trained by Todd Pletcher so the connections think he must have enough talent to win here. He does have a good pedigree, so the distance should not be a problem. The lack of experience and class quality will make me pass on him and only use for 3rd and 4th.
#9 Revolutionary (9-2) - The 3rd place finisher from the Kentucky Derby gets Javier Castellano back in the saddle who accounts for two of his three wins. There is a lot to like about him, he fires every race, never missed the board in seven career starts, training well, and loves the off track. The main concern is his pedigree with War Pass as his sire, but to his credit he does have A.P. Indy as the dam-sire. Must use in the win spot.
#10 Will Take Charge (20-1) - He has clearly shown he is not on the same level as the top 3 Year olds. In addition, he does not care for an off track as noted by his Derby and Southwest performances. He does have a pedigree that favors a mile and a half. If the track comes up fast on Saturday, I will use him underneath, otherwise I will pass on him altogether.
#11 Vyjack (20-1) - He was compromised by being too close to the pace in the Kentucky Derby. He knows Belmont as he trains here for part of the year and he does not mind the off track as noted by his 2nd career race in which he won by 5 3/4 lengths. He is an intriguing horse from a longshot perspective, but I will only use him underneath.
#12 Palace Malice (12-1) - Another Pletcher runner who shocked a lot of people by setting the fast pace in the Derby. With the Blinkers off, I expect him to sit off the pace and he has experience over the Belmont track (2nd in his career debut). He also has the pedigree to stay for 12 furlongs being out of Curlin and a Royal Anthem mare. I will use on top and underneath.
#13 Unlimited Budget (8-1) - The lone Filly and yet another trained by Todd Pletcher. She comes in off her 3rd place finish in the Kentucky Oaks and has been training exceptionally well over the Belmont surface. My concern is she had the perfect trip in the Oaks and had still only finished 3rd. Another concern is she will be probably not be close to 8-1 as she will be ridden by Rosie Napravnik and trained by Todd Pletcher who trained the last Filly to win the Belmont. Must use underneath for me.
#14 Golden Soul (10-1) - The surprise 2nd place finisher of the Kentucky Derby will have a lot more backers today. It is difficult for me to tell whether that race was a fluke or possibly a sign of things to come. He obviously loves the off track and the added distance only helps his cause. If he can rate closer to the pace he has a chance to win, but he is a must use underneath.
Here is my breakdown:
On Top: 5, 9, 12, 14
Underneath: 2, 3, 7, 8, 11, 13
Tosses: 1, 4, 6, 10
I personally feel the best betting value in the Belmont is #9 Revolutionary and #12 Palace Malice. Best of luck to those wager on the Belmont Stakes.
#1 Frac Daddy (30-1) - He is entering off a 16th place finish in the Kentucky Derby five weeks ago. He leaves a lot to be desired as he appears to be a cut below the best horses. I think a mile and a half is farther than he wants to go and his latest workout does not instill confidence. On the positive side, he does have a 2nd place finish here and Alan Garcia rides. I do not see him being a factor here.
#2 Freedom Child (8-1) - He is the hot horse off his Peter Pan victory on May 11. He did win that race in impressive fashion by 13 1/2 lengths on a sloppy track. There is plenty of upside with him, but there are a few concerns. First, he will probably want the lead as both of his victories have been in gate to wire fashion. That is a problem with the likes of Oxbow who will also want the lead. Secondly, he is moving up in class and will need to improve further to be this years Belmont Winner. I will pass on him in the Win spot.
#3 Overanlayze (12-1) - Another horse coming into the Belmont off the Kentucky Derby race. He finished 11th that day after an even effort. While I would be quick to dismiss him, that even running style may work in his favor over 12 furlongs. He also gets the services of John Velazquez back and he won the Grade 2 Futurity at Belmont in September 2012. Hopefully this guy can be closer to the pace and will give him a small chance at the upset. I will use him underneath.
#4 Giant Finish (30-1) - He comes off a 10th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He has shown in two starts that he does not care for the off track. There are not a lot of positives in this corner and do not give him much of a chance on Saturday.
#5 Orb (3-1) - This years Triple Crown hopeful failed to live up to expectations in the Preakness three weeks ago, but is back for the Belmont. To be honest, I am shocked he is in the Belmont given Shug McGaughey's conservative nature with horses. Nevertheless, he must be respected as this is Orb's home track. He has no problem with a sloppy track and the distance should not be a problem. He deserves respect and is a must use on top.
#6 Incognito (20-1) - He too ran in the Peter Pan Stakes, but he failed to show much finishing 5th beaten 15 3/4 lengths. He does not appear to favor the off tracks and he is light on class and experience. I will pass on using this guy.
#7 Oxbow (5-1) - The upset winner of the Preakness is back for more in the Belmont. He certainly appreciates when he is given everything on the front end and no pressure. I do not believe he will get the same trip he got in the Preakness as #2 Freedom Child will be there all the way on the lead. At 5-1, I expect this guy to be over bet. I am tempted not to use him underneath, but he can hang on for 3rd or 4th.
#8 Midnight Taboo (30-1) - This guy has just 3 starts to his credit and only a maiden win. He is trained by Todd Pletcher so the connections think he must have enough talent to win here. He does have a good pedigree, so the distance should not be a problem. The lack of experience and class quality will make me pass on him and only use for 3rd and 4th.
#9 Revolutionary (9-2) - The 3rd place finisher from the Kentucky Derby gets Javier Castellano back in the saddle who accounts for two of his three wins. There is a lot to like about him, he fires every race, never missed the board in seven career starts, training well, and loves the off track. The main concern is his pedigree with War Pass as his sire, but to his credit he does have A.P. Indy as the dam-sire. Must use in the win spot.
#10 Will Take Charge (20-1) - He has clearly shown he is not on the same level as the top 3 Year olds. In addition, he does not care for an off track as noted by his Derby and Southwest performances. He does have a pedigree that favors a mile and a half. If the track comes up fast on Saturday, I will use him underneath, otherwise I will pass on him altogether.
#11 Vyjack (20-1) - He was compromised by being too close to the pace in the Kentucky Derby. He knows Belmont as he trains here for part of the year and he does not mind the off track as noted by his 2nd career race in which he won by 5 3/4 lengths. He is an intriguing horse from a longshot perspective, but I will only use him underneath.
#12 Palace Malice (12-1) - Another Pletcher runner who shocked a lot of people by setting the fast pace in the Derby. With the Blinkers off, I expect him to sit off the pace and he has experience over the Belmont track (2nd in his career debut). He also has the pedigree to stay for 12 furlongs being out of Curlin and a Royal Anthem mare. I will use on top and underneath.
#13 Unlimited Budget (8-1) - The lone Filly and yet another trained by Todd Pletcher. She comes in off her 3rd place finish in the Kentucky Oaks and has been training exceptionally well over the Belmont surface. My concern is she had the perfect trip in the Oaks and had still only finished 3rd. Another concern is she will be probably not be close to 8-1 as she will be ridden by Rosie Napravnik and trained by Todd Pletcher who trained the last Filly to win the Belmont. Must use underneath for me.
#14 Golden Soul (10-1) - The surprise 2nd place finisher of the Kentucky Derby will have a lot more backers today. It is difficult for me to tell whether that race was a fluke or possibly a sign of things to come. He obviously loves the off track and the added distance only helps his cause. If he can rate closer to the pace he has a chance to win, but he is a must use underneath.
Here is my breakdown:
On Top: 5, 9, 12, 14
Underneath: 2, 3, 7, 8, 11, 13
Tosses: 1, 4, 6, 10
I personally feel the best betting value in the Belmont is #9 Revolutionary and #12 Palace Malice. Best of luck to those wager on the Belmont Stakes.
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